Bitcoin (BTC) has the potential to reach $500,000 if its price action mirrors its performance following the significant expansion of global M2 money supply seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.
An analysis shared on X by Jesse Myers, co-founder of Onramp Bitcoin, highlights that the current surge in global M2 money supply is the largest since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Bitcoin vs. M2 Supply: A Repeat of 2020?
Bitcoin enthusiasts have reason to anticipate substantial gains if BTC's price trajectory follows its path from late 2020.
Global M2, a measure that typically precedes Bitcoin's upward movements with a slight delay, is currently expanding at a rate not observed since the period following the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020.
"The money printer hasn’t run this hot since COVID. Global M2 money supply now ~$137T Was $129T just 6 months ago," Myers stated, presenting data compiled from TradingView.
Gold has rallied in response. Bitcoin seems to be lagging - just as it did in 2020.
The current M2 increase of 6.2% since March of this year is still below the levels seen in 2020, when Myers noted that the supply expanded by 21% by the end of that year.
"With a little delay, Bitcoin went on a 6x rally Q4 2020 - Q1 2021," he continued.
What will happen over the next 6 months?
While a direct repetition of Bitcoin's past performance may not occur, such a scenario would project BTC/USD prices above $500,000 by 2026.
Data from Barchart indicates that the US M2 supply recently reached a new all-time high, exceeding $22 trillion.
BTC Price Launch Expected Amid Continued Monetary Expansion
Asset manager Lawrence Lepard anticipates that this trend will have a predictable impact on Bitcoin.
12% annualized growth rate in global M2. far cry from the Fed's 2% target and they haven't really even turned on the printer yet. Bitcoin launch coming. Wait for it..... https://t.co/nfosCEG505
— Lawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world" (@LawrenceLepard) October 21, 2025
Lepard described M2 as the "real rate of inflation," expressing skepticism towards central bank inflation targets, such as the US Federal Reserve's stated goal of 2%.
There are ongoing discussions about the feasibility of achieving the long-standing 2% inflation target.
Financial markets are anticipating that interest rate cuts in 2025, including potential actions by the Fed at its upcoming October meeting, could further stimulate economic activity.