The cryptocurrency market is experiencing renewed pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) potentially facing a temporary decline below the $100,000 mark. This correction follows heightened geopolitical tensions between the United States and China, coupled with a bearish short-term outlook from Standard Chartered analysts.
Analyst Forecasts Brief Drop Below Six Figures
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, indicated in a recent investor note that current market weakness could push Bitcoin prices under $100,000 in the upcoming weeks. He attributes this potential downturn to escalating trade-war fears and recent statements from U.S. President Donald Trump regarding further tariffs on Chinese imports.
Kendrick anticipates that while a deeper correction might briefly impact investor confidence, it is expected to be short-lived. He believes that Bitcoin’s underlying strength, bolstered by consistent institutional inflows via exchange-traded funds (ETFs), will ultimately drive prices significantly higher. The analyst maintains a year-end price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin. Even under more conservative projections, Kendrick forecasts Bitcoin to reach at least $150,000 before the close of 2025.
Trade Tensions Fuel Market Volatility
The recent pressure on Bitcoin is largely driven by escalating trade rhetoric between Washington and Beijing. President Trump has threatened to impose tariffs of up to 155% on Chinese goods if a trade deal is not secured before November, causing apprehension across global financial markets. Earlier in the month, an announcement of a 100% tariff led to a brief dip in BTC’s price to $104,000 as traders moved away from riskier assets.
Despite intermittent price recoveries, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain its upward momentum. Each attempt at a rally has been met with swift selling pressure, suggesting that short-term market sentiment remains fragile. Analysts note that this behavior is consistent with traditional market uncertainty during periods of intensifying global trade disputes, prompting investors to seek refuge in assets like the U.S. dollar and gold.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels and Indicators
On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin's price action indicates consolidation around the $108,000 level after a slight recovery from a local low near $106,000. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently positioned around 50, suggesting a neutral market sentiment without clear overbought or oversold conditions. This neutral stance implies that the market could move in either direction, depending on the next significant market catalyst.
Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram has been oscillating near the zero line, reflecting diminished momentum. The MACD line remains below the signal line, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias. For bullish sentiment to return, a clear breakout above $112,000 would be a key indicator of renewed strength. Conversely, a price close below $106,000 could signal a steeper decline towards $100,000 or even lower.
Should Bitcoin breach the significant psychological threshold of $100,000, analysts anticipate substantial buying activity as both institutional and retail investors may view this as an opportune accumulation level. Historically, such significant dips within broader uptrends have often preceded substantial price rallies.
Broader Market Context
The total cryptocurrency market capitalization has also experienced a decline in recent trading sessions, with Ethereum’s price falling below $4,000 for the first time in nearly two weeks. Market liquidity has thinned, and traders are exercising caution ahead of the upcoming APEC Summit, where a meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping is anticipated. Any developments, whether positive or negative, from this summit could significantly influence Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.
Despite the current short-term uncertainty, Standard Chartered remains one of the few major financial institutions projecting aggressive long-term growth for Bitcoin. Kendrick highlighted that sustained ETF inflows and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could serve as catalysts for a new bullish cycle, potentially propelling BTC towards his $200,000 year-end target.
Outlook
Bitcoin currently stands at a critical juncture. While the market may endure further volatility due to ongoing global trade disputes, the long-term outlook remains bullish. Traders are closely monitoring the $106,000 to $112,000 range as a decisive zone. A confirmed breakout from this range could determine whether the next move involves a retest of $120,000 or a temporary slide below $100,000, which could potentially set the stage for a larger rally later in 2025.