Bitcoin’s recent market signals suggest it may be nearing a crucial rebound phase. As a key valuation metric dips below its long-term average, analysts see potential for a sustained recovery, driven by investor rotation from traditional assets like gold into the leading cryptocurrency. This shift, combined with favorable macroeconomic factors, positions Bitcoin for possible significant gains in the coming months.
- •Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio falling below its 365-day average hints at a local bottom, historically preceding major bull runs.
- •Capital movement from gold could help catalyze Bitcoin’s upward trend as investors reassess safe-haven assets.
- •Technical analysis projects Bitcoin reaching short-term targets of around $115,000, with potential to exceed $190,000.
- •Declines in gold prices and upcoming macroeconomic data may boost the crypto market’s momentum.
- •Crypto market sentiment appears increasingly bullish amid signs of long-term confidence rebuilding among investors.
Bitcoin’s MVRV Indicator Signals a "Local Bottom"
Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio — a metric that gauges whether crypto assets are overbought or undervalued — recently slipped below its 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant analyst ShayanMarkets notes this situation is often associated with price turning points, particularly local bottoms, signaling potential bullish reversals.
Currently, the MVRV ratio hovers near 1.9, slightly below its 365-day average. Such declines typically mark periods when long-term holders are accumulating, as the asset enters an undervalued phase. Historical patterns show that these dips often precede powerful rallies, including jumps of 135%, 100%, and 196% after similar signals in mid-2021, June 2022, and early 2024.
During recent volatile price movements — including a nearly 8% drop to ~$103,530 from an all-time high of $126,000 — the MVRV ratio declined, indicating reduced speculative excess and growing investor confidence. Analysts suggest that a reversal back upward in this metric could confirm the bottom formation and the beginning of a new bullish cycle into Q4.
If historical trends hold, Bitcoin could embark on a prolonged rally, with projections pointing toward short-term targets of around $115,000. More optimistic forecasts suggest the possibility of reaching as high as $190,000 if the current bullish momentum persists.
Capital Rotation from Gold Bolsters Bitcoin Prospects
Market data shows gold has declined approximately 8.5% from its record high of $4,380 per ounce. Experts interpret this as a sign that the recent peak in gold prices may be peaking, prompting a rotation of capital into cryptocurrency assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, notes that the sharp pullback in gold indicates it may have reached a temporary plateau, paving the way for increased institutional and retail interest in crypto as a risk-on asset.
The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) release further adds to market anticipation. A softer-than-expected CPI could lead to potential rate cuts and ease government restrictions, fueling crypto’s growth as risk appetite returns.
Specifically, some analysts believe that a 5% shift of capital from gold to Bitcoin could push the cryptocurrency’s price toward $240,000, representing a substantial upside based on current market dynamics.
Bitwise suggests that a 5% capital rotation from gold to Bitcoin could drive BTC to $242,391 👀 pic.twitter.com/FwvjneWhdX
— Bitcoin Archive (@BTC_Archive) October 21, 2025
As ongoing macroeconomic shifts unfold, technical analyses project Bitcoin’s price rally could surpass previous records, with some forecasts indicating potential targets exceeding $150,000 to even $165,000 by year-end. Market participants remain cautious but increasingly optimistic as fundamental and on-chain indicators align to support a bullish outlook for cryptocurrency markets.