Market Momentum and Key Indicators
Bitcoin has seen a notable price surge, hitting the $92,000 mark in recent days. However, a divergence between Bitcoin’s price and open interest (OI) has raised concerns among traders and analysts. Open interest, which measures the total value of outstanding derivative contracts, has not kept up with the price increase. This suggests that fewer traders are willing to take on leveraged positions, indicating weakening market momentum.
BTC Price, OI Divergence Persists
“Given that the market is structurally driven by derivatives, the current rally may struggle to sustain itself if expectations for a rate cut weaken heading into the FOMC meeting.” – By @MAC_D46035 pic.twitter.com/Gulw5nU92K
Rate Cut Expectations and Market Uncertainty
The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting could influence the market’s direction. Expectations of a rate cut may add further uncertainty to Bitcoin’s trajectory in the short term. The market is awaiting the FOMC’s policy decision, with a high probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut. A rate reduction would bring the federal funds rate into the 3.50%–3.75% range, following similar cuts in previous months.
Water coolertalk: Polymarket is betting 93% on a December cut, but the Fed could still wait, the November jobs and inflation data won’t even arrive until after the meeting.
While the rate cut is expected to support the broader market, Bitcoin’s price may not see sustained growth without strong backing from open interest and increased market participation.
According to Matrixport, volatility in the market continues to compress. This trend suggests that Bitcoin’s price may face limited upward movement as year-end approaches. With reduced volatility, Bitcoin is less likely to experience a sharp rally in the near future.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Outlook Remains Positive
At Binance Blockchain Week 2025, Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) expressed confidence that Bitcoin could experience a significant rally in 2026, similar to gold’s recent performance. While Bitcoin’s performance in 2025 has been relatively subdued, with a 5.7% decline, some analysts still see potential for significant growth in the coming years.