Bitcoin has extended its decline into the $94K–$96K macro demand region after a failed retest of the broken trendline. The market now sits at an important decision point, and the next reaction from this zone will determine whether the current move develops into a larger accumulation phase or unfolds into a further correction.
Technical Analysis
The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, BTC remains under both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with each now positioned as layered resistance above the market. The rejection from the 100-day MA at $110K accelerated the decline and ultimately led to a clean sweep of the $99K–$100K liquidity cluster.
It coincides with the strong displacement candle seen earlier this week, showing clear dominance from sellers as the market transitioned into the lower portion of its multi-month distribution range.
The current test of the $94K–$96K demand block is significant. This region aligns with previous high-volume trading behavior from earlier in the year, where long-term participants accumulated heavily. If the price stabilizes here and forms a higher low, the zone may once again play the role of a structural base. Should the market fail to defend this area, the next major support is located deeper, around the $80K–$82K macro range, forming the bottom boundary of the larger cycle structure.
The 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour structure highlights how the market completed a full bearish sequence following the break of the rising wedge. After the breakdown, Bitcoin returned to the underside of the trendline near $106K–$108K, where the retest was cleanly rejected. This rejection confirmed the transition from support to resistance, shifting the short-term flow decisively downward.
The subsequent selloff drove the price directly into the $94K–$96K zone, a historically reactive demand region that has repeatedly initiated medium-term reversals in past cycles. Although an initial reaction has formed here, the structure remains heavy, and the asset has not yet produced the higher-timeframe signals required to confirm a sustainable recovery.
For any short-term strength to develop, the market must first reclaim the $101K–$103K liquidity pocket, which currently acts as the nearest barrier preventing upward continuation.
On-chain Analysis
The Realized Price distribution across UTXO age bands offers a clear view of the current investor positioning. Bitcoin has now fallen below both the 1–3 month and 3–6 month cohorts’ realized prices. With these two groups sitting in aggregate loss, their realized price levels have effectively transformed into realized supply. This creates an overhead band between roughly $105K and $110K, where short-term holders are likely to sell into any recovery attempt in order to exit at breakeven. Historically, this behavior acts as the first layer of resistance after sharp downward moves.
In contrast, the 6–12 month cohort remains in profit, and their realized price, situated around $94K–$96K, aligns almost perfectly with the current market support. This group is typically more resilient, and their realized price often functions as a stabilizing zone during deep corrections. It is common in prior cycles for the market to interact with this cohort’s realized price during late-stage shakeouts, allowing long-term participants to absorb supply from capitulating short-term holders.
The resulting on-chain structure positions Bitcoin between realized supply from short-term loss holders above and realized demand from mid-term holders below. A decisive break beneath it, however, would signal a deeper capitulation phase, likely forcing a reset in sentiment before any attempt at a new bullish leg.
