Key Takeaways
- •Bitcoin’s dip below $85K triggered extreme fear, but long-term buyers may be quietly accumulating.
- •Analysts say institutional holders reduce the chance of a deep crash toward $56K.
- •Current consolidation could strengthen the market for the next major rally rather than end the bull run.
The Fear and Greed Index plunging below 10 has triggered headlines about a confirmed bear market and renewed predictions of a collapse toward $60,000.
But behind the noise and liquidations, data paints a far more nuanced picture of what’s happening — and who is really buying.
Short-Term Pain Is Masking Long-Term Positioning
Instead of focusing on price targets and panic, some analysts are dissecting who is actually exiting the market and who is quietly stepping in. One of the most vocal voices on this front is CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who argues that the current environment punishes leveraged traders but may offer an unusually attractive zone for long-term spot buyers.
Ju’s view flips the typical cycle narrative. According to his on-chain models, the hot phase of the bull cycle technically peaked earlier this year around the $100,000 region. Classical cycle theory would normally expect a reset toward the realized price near $56,000 — yet Ju thinks we may not get that deep of a retracement this time.
The difference today: institutional ownership. Companies such as Michael Saylor’s Strategy hold massive amounts of Bitcoin, and are not expected to sell into weakness. With so many coins locked away from short-term traders, supply shocks can hit faster than in previous cycles.
Liquidity Matters More Than Fear Right Now
Another reason Ju remains constructive has nothing to do with price charts — it has to do with politics. Governments across the world have strong incentives to keep liquidity elevated until at least mid-next-year. If that trend continues, risk assets could bounce hard without warning, making aggressive shorting a dangerous strategy.
In his words, even if volatility continues, this is not the type of market where giving up long-term exposure makes sense.
Consolidation Is Not Capitulation
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley offers a complementary interpretation — not from an on-chain lens, but a behavioral one. He describes the current environment as a redistribution phase, where long-term investors steadily absorb assets from short-term participants.
The dynamic is simple: the investors exiting now are usually the ones who entered late or without conviction. The ones accumulating now are those willing to make the current price their base — and these types of holders historically form the backbone of the next bull cycle.
According to Horsley, every dip ultimately strengthens the market’s structure because it reduces the number of investors who panic at volatility and increases the number of holders who treat Bitcoin and other major assets as long-term positions.
A Market That Looks Fragile — But May Be Getting Stronger
Fear is loud, but accumulation is quiet. Sentiment metrics imply disaster, yet the underlying investor base may be reinforcing rather than collapsing. Both analysts agree on one idea:
Volatility does not automatically signal the end of a bull market — sometimes it’s the reset that builds the next one.
Short-term pain may be unavoidable, but the type of hands absorbing supply right now could determine how powerful the next rally becomes once the dust settles.