Bitcoin Outperforms US Indexes In Surprise Move

Key Developments

While traditional markets are wavering in anticipation of Nvidia’s results, bitcoin surprises by rebounding 4% on Tuesday. In a tense atmosphere, the crypto escapes the declining US stock indices and intrigues investors. Is this surge a sign of a new bullish momentum or merely a speculative spike? The timing, on the eve of a key verdict on AI, makes this move all the more strategic.

An Unexpected Bitcoin Rebound in a Tense Stock Market Environment

This Tuesday, November 18, bitcoin recorded a remarkable 4% rebound, surging from $89,300 to $93,700 within a few hours.

This bullish move occurred in a context where traditional financial markets were sharply down. Indeed, the Dow Jones lost up to 1.2%, the S&P 500 1.1%, while the Nasdaq dropped 1.5%. Nvidia’s stock, a flagship of the AI-driven stock rally, fell 2% during the session, bringing its monthly loss to 10%, on the eve of its quarterly earnings report.

Several technical and cyclical factors seem to have contributed to this rebound. Thus, BTC reacted from a key technical support zone identified between $88,400 and $91,500, corresponding to a block of strategic orders.

Moreover, the prevailing nervousness in equity markets could have favored a temporary rotation toward more speculative assets. Some analysts also mention a return of risk appetite ahead of Nvidia’s quarterly earnings, seen as a pivotal moment for the artificial intelligence sector.

Here are the main takeaways:

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  A 4% bitcoin rebound in one session, from an intraday low of $89,300 to $93,700;
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  The widespread stock market downturn;
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  A notable Nvidia decline (–2%) on the eve of its third-quarter results amid concerns about the sustainability of the AI rally;
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  A key technical zone activated between $88,400 and $91,500, identified as an order block;
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  Bitcoin temporarily finds itself in the rare position of a speculative safe haven, in contrast to traditional tech stocks.

Although notable, this rebound occurs amid high tension in global financial markets. It remains to be seen whether this is a sustainable recovery or merely a technical volatility episode amid anxious waiting.

A Recovery Undermined by the Absence of Institutional Investors

Despite this spectacular rebound, some key indicators greatly temper enthusiasm. According to on-chain data, the Coinbase premium, which measures the gap between the price on Coinbase (a platform favored by institutions) and that observed on Binance (dominated by individuals), fell to –$114.5 on November 17.

This is one of its lowest levels since February 25, when the indicator reached –$138 during a period of large investor disengagement. This clearly reflects institutional disinterest, with institutions not participating in the current bullish move.

Such a structural imbalance in demand origin reveals a particularly fragile market dynamic. In a solid bullish cycle, the Coinbase premium tends to become positive, signaling a massive return of institutional capital.

Conversely, a negative gap like the one currently observed suggests that the rise is mainly fueled by retail investors on Binance, who are often quicker to react to price changes and more prone to sell on corrections.

This configuration could compromise the strength of the rebound. Without tangible institutional support, the current rally could lack depth and quickly lose momentum, especially if equity markets were to face a new correction related to Nvidia’s results. While the bitcoin price seems to be recovering, its short-term trajectory will likely depend as much on internal technical factors as on external upheavals from traditional markets.