On-Chain Indicators Signal Elevated Buyer Stress
Multiple on-chain metrics now resemble conditions seen at the start of the 2022 bear market, according to Glassnode's latest weekly newsletter highlighting elevated buyer stress and rising supply held at a loss.
The data provider's supply quantiles cost basis tracks the cost basis of supply held by top buyers. Since mid-November, the Bitcoin spot price has fallen below the 0.75 quantile, which is trading near $96,100. This places more than 25% of Bitcoin supply underwater.
A similar breakdown below the 0.75 quantile marked the start of the 2022 bear market. The metric signals rising risk of top buyer capitulation as more holders face unrealized losses.
Increasing Supply Held at a Loss
Total supply in loss on a seven-day simple moving average has reached 7.1 million Bitcoin, hitting the top end of the 5 million to 7 million range seen in early 2022. The rising figure shows increasing financial pressure on holders who bought at higher price levels.
Persistent, Though Weakening, Capital Inflows
Despite these pressures, capital continues flowing into Bitcoin on a realized cap net change basis, which stands near $8.69 billion per month. This figure remains far below the summer peak of $64.3 billion per month, according to Glassnode, indicating weakening but still positive net investment flow.
Softening Off-Chain Trends and ETF Demand
Off-chain trends show additional softening from investors. ETF demand continues to weaken, with IBIT registering a sixth consecutive week of outflows. The streak represents the longest negative period since the fund launched in January 2024, with total redemptions exceeding $2.7 billion over the past five weeks.
Deteriorating Spot Market Activity
Spot market activity is also deteriorating. Cumulative volume delta has rolled over, with Binance CVD trending persistently negative. The Coinbase premium appears ready to roll over again after briefly flipping positive following an extended period in negative territory.
Declining Risk Appetite in Derivatives Market
Derivatives data reinforces the decline in risk appetite. Open interest has fallen throughout November into December, suggesting reduced willingness to take on risk, particularly after the Oct. 10 liquidation flash crash event. Perpetual funding rates are mostly neutral with brief periods of negative prints.
Market Positioning Ahead of FOMC Meeting
The funding premium has cooled notably, pointing to a more balanced and less speculative environment. Glassnode notes that traders are not positioning for a strong breakout ahead of next week's FOMC meeting, with the options market showing upside being sold rather than chased. Earlier in the week, put buying dominated as Bitcoin approached $80,000, but flows shifted toward call activity as investor fears calmed after prices stabilized.