Key Insights
- •Bitcoin price recovered to $92,246 after finding support at the True Market Mean near $96,100, although more than 25% of supply remained underwater.
- •US Bitcoin ETF flows turned decisively negative in November, despite a positive monthly capital momentum of $8.69 billion.
- •The cryptocurrency stabilized above the critical threshold separating mild corrections from deeper bear markets.
Bitcoin (BTC) rebounded above $92,000 after testing a critical support level amid mixed Bitcoin news. However, market dynamics increasingly resembled the early 2022 downturn.
The price of Bitcoin recovered from lows near $84,500. It must find support at the True Market Mean around $96,100, which represents the cost basis of all active coins excluding miners.
Supply Pressure Persists Despite Recovery
As Glassnode reported, over 7.1 million BTC remained in unrealized loss territory last week, marking the highest level since September 2023. This represented the largest concentration of underwater supply in more than two years of price expansion.
The Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model showed that Bitcoin’s price of $92,246.28 as of press time still traded below the 0.75 quantile at $96,100, leaving more than one-quarter of the total supply in the red.
The structural weakness created fragile conditions between potential capitulation by recent buyers and exhaustion among sellers.
The Bitcoin news cycle focused intensely on whether the cryptocurrency could reclaim the 0.85 quantile near $106,200 as support. Recovery above this threshold remained essential for stabilizing broader market structure and reducing vulnerability to macro shocks.
Capital Inflows Diverge From Institutional Flows
Despite mounting losses, net realized cap growth remained positive at $8.69 billion per month. This marked a sharp decline from July’s $64.3 billion monthly peak, but it remained decisively above zero.
Positive capital momentum allowed the True Market Mean to serve as a consolidation zone and potential bottom-formation area rather than signaling a deeper breakdown.
Bitcoin ETF demand told a different story. The 3-day average net flows slipped firmly into negative territory throughout November. Outflows are spreading across issuers, reflecting more cautious positioning by institutional participants. The reversal ended a persistent inflow regime that had supported Bitcoin’s price earlier in the year.
Long-Term Holders Reduce Profit Margins
Long-term investors continued spending coins at diminishing profit levels. The Long-Term Holder SOPR fell to 1.43 on a 30-day moving average basis. This mirrored the dynamics of the first quarter of 2022, in which holders realized profits amid shrinking margins.
Although demand momentum exceeded early 2022 levels, declining liquidity required bulls to hold above the True Market Mean until fresh demand emerged.
Cumulative Volume Delta turned negative across major exchanges. Both Binance and aggregated exchange cohorts showed steady taker-driven sell pressure. Traders crossed spreads to reduce exposure rather than accumulate positions. Even Coinbase flattened, signaling retreat in US bid strength and leaving bitcoin news increasingly vulnerable to external volatility.
Derivatives and Options Show Defensive Positioning and Caution
Futures open interest declined steadily through late November. The orderly unwind erased speculative buildup from the prior uptrend. Traders avoided expressing directional conviction, favoring conservative positioning as Bitcoin faced resistance.
The lighter leverage state reduced the probability of sharp liquidation-driven moves. Perpetual funding rates cooled into neutral territory, oscillating near zero. This shift from elevated positive funding suggested excess long positioning unwound.
Periods of modestly negative funding remained shallow and brief, indicating traders refrained from aggressive short positioning despite recent drawdowns.
Implied volatility reset lower across maturities after elevated readings. Short-dated contracts fell from 57% to 48%. Mid-tenor maturities declined from 52% to 45%. Longer-dated expiries eased from 49% to 47%. The compression suggested traders expected calmer near-term conditions with a lower probability of sharp moves.
Bearish skew declined from 18.6% to 8.4% as Bitcoin ETF sentiment improved following the recovery from $84,500. The adjustment indicated initial reactions were overdone. The call premium at the $100,000 strike showed limited conviction in reclaiming this psychological level from current prices near $92,000. Traders sold upside rather than chasing it ahead of upcoming Federal Reserve decisions.
Critical Range Defines Year-End Outlook
The market required Bitcoin’s price to break above $96,100 and hold within the $96,100 to $106,200 band to establish a stabilizing structure. This range between the 0.75 and 0.85 quantiles would reduce downside vulnerability heading into year-end.
The True Market Mean near $96,100 served as the next resistance level, while maintaining support above $90,000 prevented deeper correction absent negative macro catalysts.
Bitcoin ETF participants adopted wait-and-see approaches as flows reversed. The combination of underwater supply, thinning spot demand, and unwinding derivatives positioned the cryptocurrency in structurally fragile territory.
Whether positive capital momentum could offset institutional caution would determine if current levels near $92,000 marked accumulation or required further consolidation before challenging resistance at $96,100 and beyond.