Bitcoin’s (BTC) current trading behavior reflects one of its deepest macroeconomic disconnects in years, with global liquidity surging while BTC continues to lag behind money supply growth and gold’s record performance. A recent report from Bitwise suggested this gap may be setting up a significant asymmetric opportunity in Bitcoin heading into 2026.
Key takeaways:
- •Bitcoin is currently undershooting the global money supply by 66%, implying a model-based fair value near $270,000.
- •Gold has taken the bulk of 2025’s monetary-dilution bid and now overshoots global M2 by 75%.
Global Liquidity Turns, But Bitcoin Hasn’t Followed Yet
A fresh edition of the Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor report argued that the underlying environment for Bitcoin is far more bullish than its current price action. Global liquidity is now firmly pivoting toward reflation: the US is issuing nearly $1.9 trillion in Treasurys per year, preparing $2,000 stimulus checks, and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening (QT) program ended on Dec. 1.
At the same time, Japan is rolling out a $110 billion stimulus package, Canada has restarted quantitative easing (QE), and China has approved a massive $1.4 trillion fiscal initiative. With more than 320 global rate cuts executed in the last 24 months, global M2 has surged to a record $137 trillion.
Against this backdrop, Bitwise highlighted one of the largest valuation gaps in Bitcoin’s history. According to the firm’s cointegration model, BTC is currently undershooting the global money supply by roughly 66%, implying a model-implied fair value near $270,000. This disconnect translated into a hypothetical upside of about +194% if Bitcoin reverts to its long-term liquidity anchor.
Simply put, Bitcoin is undervalued relative to the scale of global monetary expansion, a dynamic that matters because BTC historically served as the most sensitive barometer for monetary dilution due to its absolute scarcity, as noted in the report.
Meanwhile, gold has absorbed most of 2025’s liquidity bid and now overshoots the global money supply by nearly 75%, creating what Bitwise said “further strengthens the case for an imminent rotation with potentially very large performance effects” in Bitcoin.
Bollinger Bands suggest Bitcoin bottom won’t fall under $55K.
Bitcoin is Due for Strong Risk-Adjusted Returns Against Gold
Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurrien Timmer said that Bitcoin’s trend setup currently trails gold across momentum and Sharpe ratio metrics, placing the two assets at “polar opposites.”
The Sharpe ratio measures how much return an asset generates relative to its volatility, meaning gold is currently delivering stronger risk-adjusted performance than Bitcoin. While not yet signaling a reversal, Timmer framed this widening divergence as a potentially compelling mean-reversion setup.
Zooming out, Timmer noted that Bitcoin remains broadly aligned with its long-term power-law adoption curve despite its drawdown below $100,000. As BTC matures with limited parabolic returns, Timmer addressed BTC as “gold’s precocious younger sibling growing up”, still structurally strong, just less volatile.
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