Bitcoin (BTC) may never fall below $100,000 again if current market and political conditions stay positive, according to Standard Chartered Bank’s global head of digital assets research, Geoffrey Kendrick.
In a new note shared on Monday, Kendrick explained that if the U.S. and China can find common ground concerning the trade war, together with an expected rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve, investor confidence over time could keep Bitcoin’s price high.
Kendrick said this outlook starts with the progress in trade talks. Over the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China might delay its rare-earth export controls for one year and buy large amounts of U.S. soybeans for several years. In return, the U.S. government may drop its earlier 100% tariff threat.
The deal is set to be finalized after the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday.
Easing Trade Tensions Spark Market Optimism
The market has reacted to this news and lifted the overall sentiment. At the time of writing this report, Bitcoin is trading for $115k, a 1.63% surge from an intraday low of $113k. In addition to that, the bitcoin-to-gold ratio, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to gold, has risen back to levels seen before October 10, when tariff headlines caused panic selling.
“I will watch for this ratio to break back above 30 to signal an end to such fear,” Kendrick said in his note.
ETF Inflows Could Confirm Bitcoin’s Strength
Kendrick also pointed out that inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) would be another sign of growing confidence. Last week, over $2 billion was withdrawn from U.S. gold ETFs between Wednesday and Friday.
Kendrick said it would show stronger belief in Bitcoin if even half of that money moved into Bitcoin ETFs this week. He added that Bitcoin ETF inflows have been weaker compared to gold, and “some catch-up is due.”
According to Kendrick, if Bitcoin reaches a new all-time high, it would confirm this positive trend. He believes such a move would end the idea that Bitcoin’s price depends on halving cycles. “To clarify, I think the halving cycle is dead (ETF flows matter more), but it will take confirmation to convince everyone of this,” he explained.
He also noted that the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which is scheduled for this Wednesday as confirmed from the Federal Reserve, is expected to bring another 25-basis-point rate cut, which could be good for Bitcoin.
“If this week goes well, bitcoin may NEVER go below $100,000 again,” Kendrick concluded.