Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan has drawn parallels between gold's significant surge in 2025 and Bitcoin's current consolidation phase, suggesting that the cryptocurrency might be poised for a similar structural breakout. This analysis emerges at a time when Bitcoin is trading within a relatively narrow range, fluctuating between approximately $108,000 and $112,000, despite robust institutional demand.
Understanding Asset Dynamics
Central banks have been the primary marginal buyers of gold since 2022, and their consistent purchasing activity has been a key driver of the precious metal's impressive returns this year. In contrast, Bitcoin's recent price support has come from spot ETFs and corporate treasuries, rather than comparable accumulation by central banks. Hougan posits that this difference in buyer composition helps explain the divergent performance observed between the two assets.
The Gold Analogy
According to Hougan's structural analysis of market dynamics, when central banks began accumulating gold aggressively in 2022, price-sensitive holders tended to sell into the rising demand. This selling pressure initially muted early gains. It was only after this pool of sellers was depleted that prices began to accelerate dramatically, enabling gold's recent rally.
Bitcoin's Path Forward
A comparable pattern may be unfolding for Bitcoin. As ETF and corporate demand continues, the remaining base of sellers is expected to diminish. Hougan's thesis offers an explanation for why Bitcoin has not yet surged to $200,000, despite substantial institutional purchases through regulated investment vehicles.
Institutional Demand vs. Supply
Since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024, institutional channels and corporations have acquired approximately 1.39 million Bitcoin. During the same period, the Bitcoin network generated considerably less new supply. This imbalance should theoretically have driven prices significantly higher, were it not for offsetting selling pressure from existing holders.
Potential Inflection Point
Hougan suggests that many of these sellers have now been absorbed into the market, potentially indicating an upcoming inflection point. If ETF and corporate purchases maintain their current pace while the available on-chain supply for sale continues to decline, Bitcoin could decisively break out of its recent trading range and establish a new uptrend towards substantially higher price levels.
Market Data and Resilience
Current market data indicates sustained inflows into spot Bitcoin products, even following a recent liquidation event involving $19 billion. Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced positive net flows totaling $477 million on Tuesday. This occurred even as gold's momentum softened after testing record highs, underscoring the resilience of institutional demand for Bitcoin despite recent market volatility.
Outlook and Price Targets
In his analysis, Hougan emphasized the importance of patience, noting that gold's trajectory may have provided a roadmap for Bitcoin's potential movements without offering precise timing. Bitwise maintains a year-end price target of $200,000 for Bitcoin. Achieving this target would necessitate an approximately 85% rally from current levels around $108,000 by December 31.