The dynamics in the Bitcoin options market have completely shifted. Previously, in anticipation of significant price increases, expectations were set as high as $140,000. Now, the focus has shifted towards bets on declines around the $80,000 level. Since October 8, Bitcoin’s value has plunged over 25%, currently trading at about $91,000. Investors are now leaning towards protective positions with a downward outlook rather than hoping for upward trends.
Options Data Indicates a Sharp Turn
According to Deribit data, at the end of the previous year, investors were drawn to call options at levels like $100,000, $120,000, and $140,000. But as November set in, this scenario changed dramatically. The open interest (OI) value for the $140,000 call option fell to $1.63 billion, while the $85,000 put option rose to $2.05 billion. Strong put accumulations are also noticeable at the $80,000 and $90,000 levels, indicating a clear shift toward bearish market sentiment.
Put options provide investors the right to sell at a specified price, offering protection against downturns. Jean-David Pequignot, Deribit’s commercial officer, noted a concentration of short-term put contracts in the $84,000–$80,000 range, with implied volatility hovering around 50%. There is a notable put skew between 5% and 6.5% in options curves, showing investors are willing to pay premiums to hedge against downside risks as the year ends.
Similarly, on the blockchain-based options platform Derive.xyz, the 30-day skew has dropped from -2.9 to -5.3, confirming increased demand for downside insurance. Dr. Sean Dawson, Derive.xyz’s Head of Research, emphasized the notable concentration of puts at the $80,000 level, particularly for contracts maturing on December 26.
Signs of Recovery in a Climate of Extreme Fear
In the macroeconomic space, weak employment indicators and uncertainty around potential interest rate cuts have severely limited risk appetite. As current investors adopt protective positions, technical indicators suggest the market is approaching oversold territory.
Pequignot has observed that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 15, and the RSI fluctuates around 30. Furthermore, large wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have increased recently, pointing to big investors viewing the price drop as an opportunity to enhance their positions.
While downward pressure persists in the short term, historically severe negative sentiment environments have triggered sharp recovery rallies. The option structure concentrated around the $80,000 level could form a crucial balance point for Bitcoin in the upcoming weeks.