Key Market Dynamics Shift
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley announced on November 16 that the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle is outdated, due to market changes influenced by Bitcoin spot ETFs and institutional participation.
This shift signifies a more mature market, with evolving dynamics and reduced volatility, although sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing regulatory and financial developments.
Institutional Entry Transforms Bitcoin Market Outlook
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley recently suggested that the Bitcoin market cycle, historically viewed in four-year terms, is now outdated. He attributes this change to the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which has introduced new market participants and dynamics.
The introduction of the spot ETF has significantly altered the market structure, encouraging a longer-term investment outlook among new and institutional players. This shift is expected to moderate Bitcoin’s infamous volatility and reshape traditional cycles.
Market reactions have been varied, with some investors expressing cautious optimism. JPMorgan’s research team forecasts a potential uptrend in Bitcoin’s valuation, possibly reaching new heights as futures markets stabilize. "The four-year cycle is a relic of the past. Since the launch of the Bitcoin spot ETF, we have entered a new market structure: new participants, new dynamics, new reasons for people to buy and sell. I believe we have likely already experienced a bear market for almost 6 months and are about to exit it. The development environment for cryptocurrency has never been more favorable."
Bitcoin's Price Movements Highlight ETF's Stabilizing Role
In past cycles, sharp leverage deviations often led to market resets, intensifying volatility. However, today, institutional involvement through ETFs and spot markets promises more stable progression, easing such extreme fluctuations.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at $95,828.48, with a market cap of $1.91 trillion and a 24-hour trading volume of $47.99 billion. Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin’s dominance remains 58.66%, though it has faced price declines over the past month.
The Coincu research team highlights that regulatory advances, such as potential supportive legislation, could bolster cryptocurrency's appeal amidst evolving buyer profiles. New technologies in blockchain may further contribute to sustained market maturity and reduced volatility, continuing this transformative trend.