Key Market Movements and Holder Behavior
Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a significant decline on Tuesday, falling more than 3.5% over the preceding 24 hours to trade at $104,000. This downturn extends previous losses, with the cryptocurrency marking 8% and 17% decreases over the past week and 30 days, respectively.
This drawdown is occurring alongside notable selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders. These investors, who have held their BTC for at least six months, have offloaded more than 400,000 BTC over the past month, following Bitcoin's peak above $126,000 in early October.
Long-Term Holders Distribute Significant Bitcoin Supply
Analysis of the long-term holder (LTH) supply change indicates a net decrease of 405,000 BTC on a rolling 30-day basis. At current market prices, this amounts to approximately $42.3 billion worth of Bitcoin sold by LTHs.
This volume represents nearly 2% of Bitcoin's total supply. Despite this substantial distribution, the price has remained relatively strong, holding above the $100,000 mark. Market commentators view the market's ability to absorb this level of selling pressure without a more severe price collapse as a positive indicator for Bitcoin's resilience.
In contrast, short-term holders (STHs) have also faced pressure, with over 26,800 BTC, valued at approximately $3 billion, being sent to exchanges at a loss over the last three days.
🚨 Short Term Holder Capitulation
— Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) November 4, 2025
28,600 BTC ($2.98B) is sent to exchanges at a loss by STH. pic.twitter.com/zLmfE0lzhp
This behavior aligns with historical patterns where STHs, often characterized as having "weak hands," tend to panic-sell during market dips, frequently realizing losses. As the downtrend continues, STHs are likely to face further unrealized losses and may continue selling.
Technical Analysis: Falling Wedge and Potential Price Targets
The weekly BTC/USD chart indicates the validation of a falling wedge pattern, occurring after the price lost support from the pattern's lower trendline at $114,550.
Current support levels are being tested, with bulls attempting to maintain the price above the 50-week simple moving average (SMA), which is currently situated around $103,300. Additional key levels of defense include the psychological $100,000 mark and the 100-week SMA at $82,000.
A weekly close below these support areas could pave the way for a decline towards the falling wedge's target of $72,000, which would represent a 30% decrease from the current price.
Bitcoin's recent bearish momentum is also accompanied by a growing bearish divergence between its price and the relative strength index (RSI) on the weekly chart. While the BTC/USD pair formed higher lows between mid-July and early October, the weekly RSI declined from 70 to 45 during the same period, indicating lower lows.
This divergence, where prices rise while the RSI falls, typically signals a weakening uptrend. This can lead to increased profit-taking and buyer exhaustion as traders become more cautious.
Expert Opinions on Bitcoin's Potential Bottom
Technical analysts have been examining Bitcoin's trajectory, with some suggesting potential downside targets. Using the power law model, one analyst inquired about the potential bottom for Bitcoin, prompting input from veteran trader Peter Brandt.
Peter Brandt suggested that Bitcoin could potentially bottom out around the "upper green band" of the power law model, which is estimated to be near $60,000. He also expressed hope that the current top might not have been established yet.
Following Bitcoin's drop below $104,000, market sentiment has significantly deteriorated, moving into the "extreme fear" zone. This shift in sentiment has amplified calls for a Bitcoin price below $100,000.