Bitcoin Hunts Highs Deeper Dip to $74K Before Final Wave Up

Market Analysis and Price Targets

Last night’s rejection near $89K sets up a deeper pullback to the $74K–$82K demand zone. A classic Wave 4 correction is expected, which typically involves a flush lower, followed by an accumulation phase before the final rally. If the $74K level holds, Wave 5 targets are projected to be $110K+, indicating that the overall structure remains bullishly intact.

Late-Cycle Psychology and Market Dynamics

Bitcoin just delivered another masterclass in late-cycle psychology. After teasing $89,500 yesterday only to get violently rejected, the market is now staring at a textbook Wave 4 setup: one more leg lower, a final accumulation phase, and then the explosive Wave 5 that caps the entire 2024–2025 bull run.

The rejection candle was brutal—it featured a long upper wick, heavy volume, and an immediate reversal from the 0.618 Fibonacci extension of the move up from October’s $74K low. That specific level has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the current month. When combined with an RSI flashing extreme oversold readings near 28, the market's intention is clear: it aims to flush out remaining leverage and scare late bulls before rewarding the patient.

Demand Zones and Historical Patterns

The next major demand zone is situated between $74K and $82K. This area marked both the 2025 yearly low and multiple institutional accumulation clusters throughout the year. A sweep of this area would tag the 1.0 Fibonacci extension, shake out weak hands, and set the stage for the cleanest risk/reward entry of the entire cycle. Historical data shows that every major leg higher this year—including the March ATH, the July recovery, and the October breakout—followed an identical pattern: rejection, followed by a deeper correction, and then a violent reversal.

On-Chain Data and Investor Sentiment

On-chain data supports this projected scenario. Exchange reserves have ticked higher as panicked retail investors sell, while long-term holder supply continues to climb. This indicates a classic distribution from weak hands to strong hands. ETF flows turned briefly negative last week, yet institutional order books reportedly remain heavily bid below $80K.

The bottom line is that Bitcoin is still hunting for those six-figure highs, but it is refusing to reach them directly. One more flush down to the $74K–$82K range looks increasingly probable, and frankly, necessary to reset sentiment and fuel the final parabolic wave. For anyone still waiting on the sidelines, this is likely the last major discount before the cycle peak. The current period of pain is almost over, and the real party is about to begin.