Bitcoin stabilized around $122,000 on Thursday as traders evaluated Federal Reserve minutes indicating officials see room for additional easing this year. The largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization traded between $121,000 and $124,000 following recent highs.
Minutes from the Fed's September meeting showed policymakers broadly supporting further reductions, with roughly half favoring two more cuts before year-end. The update strengthened expectations for easier financial conditions in the fourth quarter.
Tim Misir, head of research at BRN, stated that the global liquidity cycle is clearly turning. Central banks are transitioning from tightening to easing, with rate markets pricing 90% odds of a Fed cut in October and another in December, he noted.
Markets are experiencing synchronized softening across global funding conditions, which historically fuels risk-asset surges and Bitcoin bull cycles, Misir added.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs logged one of their biggest single-day inflows earlier this week at $1.19 billion on Monday as prices reached fresh highs. Net creations continued in subsequent sessions. On Wednesday, spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $441 million in net inflows, marking their eighth consecutive day of gains.
Thomas Chen, CEO of crypto infrastructure startup Function, emphasized that ETF creations represent the cleanest signal of institutional sponsorship. Paul Howard of Wincent added that recent inflows helped establish new floor prices in anticipation of an extended rally into year-end.
Rate markets and prediction venues aligned on further easing. CME's FedWatch tool showed high probabilities of additional cuts this year, while Polymarket traders priced a roughly 90% chance of a 25‑basis‑point reduction at the Oct. 29 meeting and leaned toward three total cuts in 2025.
Geopolitical tension eased after President Donald Trump announced positive developments in the Middle East. Misir shared that a calmer Middle East could help stabilize risk sentiment. Gold surged above $4,050 per ounce for the first time, up 11.7% this month and 55% year‑to‑date.
Analysts project Bitcoin's near‑term range around $121,000 to $126,000, with a decisive break above opening a path toward $130,000. Bitcoin options open interest remains elevated above $50 billion. The path of least resistance remains tied to the Fed's easing timeline and whether the ETF bid stays intact, analysts indicate.