Despite underperforming against gold and technology stocks in recent years, Bitcoin is poised for a bullish surge according to influential industry expert Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX. Hayes suggests that expanding monetary conditions in the United States could catalyze a significant rally for the flagship cryptocurrency in the coming years.
Key Takeaways
- •Hayes forecasts Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs, driven by increased dollar liquidity.
- •Expansion of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet via monetary easing is a key catalyst.
- •Geopolitical and military expenditures are expected to sustain monetary expansion trends.
- •Bitcoin’s value is closely linked to fiat currency debasement and global liquidity dynamics.
Analyst Highlights Bitcoin’s Future Amid Macro Trends
Arthur Hayes emphasizes that Bitcoin’s future trajectory is intricately tied to macroeconomic movements, particularly monetary policy actions by the US Federal Reserve. His analysis suggests that if dollar liquidity continues to expand through measures like “money printing,” Bitcoin could experience a “drastic increase,” potentially reaching historic highs by 2026.
Hayes points to several catalysts underpinning this potential surge. These include the Fed’s ongoing balance sheet expansion, falling mortgage rates as liquidity loosens, and increased lending to strategic industries backed by the US government. Such measures are likely to bolster the risk-on environment, which traditionally benefits Bitcoin.
He notes that although Bitcoin faced a 14.4% decline in 2025, the broader crypto market’s performance was heavily influenced by liquidity constraints. Conversely, gold soared 44.4% over the same period, illustrating divergent asset responses to macroeconomic shifts. Hayes highlights that Bitcoin remains fundamentally a monetary technology, its value rooted in fiat currency debasement.
Hayes concludes that for Bitcoin to approach $100,000 per coin, relentless fiat currency debasement is a prerequisite. Despite recent setbacks, his outlook remains optimistic, positioning Bitcoin as a key beneficiary of ongoing macroeconomic policies focused on monetary expansion and strategic government spending.