Bitcoin’s recent slide may not be as ominous as it seems. Historical data from Bloomberg’s Seasonality tool suggests that when Bitcoin starts October in the red, it almost always ends the month strong, a recurring pattern traders have come to call “Uptober.”
According to the chart, this is the third time in six years that Bitcoin has traded negative midway through October. Yet, in all six previous instances, the month finished positive by October 31. The data, which tracks Bitcoin’s percentage change throughout each October since 2019, shows a clear seasonal rhythm: temporary mid-month weakness followed by strong late-month recoveries.
A Closer Look at the Data
Bloomberg’s Seasonality tool compiles Bitcoin’s historical monthly performance between October 1 and October 31, using data from XBTUSD BGN Curncy, the platform’s composite price feed. Each line on the chart represents a different year from 2019 to 2024, while 2025’s performance (shown in blue) is tracked in real time.
The x-axis displays daily price progression through the month, while the y-axis measures the percentage change from October 1. This setup reveals that even when Bitcoin dips early in the month, momentum typically reverses before month’s end.
- •2020 and 2021 posted the strongest recoveries, with gains exceeding 30% by October 31.
- •2019, a softer year, still ended up +9.6%.
- •Even during the turbulent 2022 cycle, Bitcoin managed a 6% monthly gain after starting in the red.
- •In 2023 and 2024, the month delivered consistent double-digit returns of 15–27%.
Currently, in October 2025, Bitcoin is down 5.9% mid-month, nearly identical to the early setups in 2019 and 2020, both of which preceded sharp rallies. The average October return over this six-year period sits around +19.9%, underscoring the cryptocurrency’s tendency to rebound late in the month.
Historical Patterns Offer Hope Amid Fear
Despite short-term volatility, driven by recent tariff tensions and whale liquidations, traders see this decline as part of Bitcoin’s familiar pre-rally shakeout. Historically, the second half of October has been a launchpad for Q4 strength, especially in years following large corrections or macro uncertainty.
As one analyst summarized, “Markets always shake out the weak right before the breakout.”
If the pattern repeats, Bitcoin could turn green again before Halloween, reaffirming October’s status as one of crypto’s most statistically bullish months.