Bitcoin is now sitting directly on the monthly 21-day Exponential Moving Average (21 EMA), a level that has acted as the ultimate dividing line between bull and bear markets for more than a decade. According to analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, every major cycle since 2013 has respected this signal with zero exceptions, making the current retest one of the most important moments of Bitcoin’s 2025 trend.
The Significance of the 21 EMA
Across previous cycles, including 2013, 2017, and 2020, the monthly 21 EMA has consistently acted as the "checkpoint" that determines whether Bitcoin remains in a macro bull trend or transitions into a true bear market. When this level holds, Bitcoin historically continues higher. When it breaks, the market flips decisively bearish.
EGRAG emphasizes that Bitcoin has never entered a bear market without a full monthly candle closing below the 21 EMA. This makes the current retest extremely significant for traders watching long-term momentum.
A Historical Pattern of Consistency
Looking back at 12 years of Bitcoin data, the pattern is incredibly consistent. Each cycle used the 21 EMA touch as a bullish continuation trigger or a breakdown point. Not one bear market has ever started without a full monthly close beneath the 21 EMA. Touches of this level often marked the end of panic periods and the start of powerful rebounds.
With Bitcoin now tapping that same level in late 2025, the market is confronting a familiar and critical decision zone.
Future Outlook: The Clear Bull-Bear Indicator
EGRAG frames the current setup very simply: If Bitcoin holds the 21 EMA, the bull market might continue. If Bitcoin loses the 21 EMA, only then a true bear market could be confirmed.
There’s nothing speculative about this particular indicator; its track record is unbroken. As the analyst puts it, "the chart speaks louder than emotions."
With the monthly candle nearing its close, Bitcoin is now at a pivotal moment. A rebound here would mirror every prior cycle. A breakdown, however, would signal something the market has not seen in more than a decade.
The next few weeks will reveal which side of history Bitcoin chooses.