Economist Timothy Peterson's simulations using decade-long data suggest Bitcoin has equal odds of surpassing $140,000 or finishing below $136,000 in October.
Peterson stated Wednesday on X that hundreds of simulations based purely on real data indicate a 50% probability that Bitcoin finishes the month above $140,000. He added there's a 43% chance the cryptocurrency ends below $136,000.
Bitcoin would need approximately 14.7% gains to reach $140,000 from its current price of $122,032. The cryptocurrency cooled after setting a new all-time high of $126,200 on Monday.
Bitcoin opened Oct. 1 at roughly $116,500, meaning a rise to $140,000 would represent a 20.17% gain for the month. This closely matches Bitcoin's historical October average performance of 20.75% gains since 2013.
Peterson explained the simulation uses Bitcoin's daily price data from 2015 to model market behavior over time. The forecast stems from “hundreds of simulations based purely on real data, not human emotion or biased opinion,” he stated.
The economist noted that every projection follows identical logic using price changes matching Bitcoin's real historical volatility and rhythm. Peterson told reporters the simulation shows half of Bitcoin October gains may have already occurred.
October ranks as Bitcoin's second-best performing month on average since 2013. November holds the top spot, delivering average gains of 46.02% over the same period.
Peterson claimed the forecast avoids bias and noise influencing short-term sentiment, producing a clear probability-based picture of Bitcoin's likely trajectory. However, Bitcoin has diverged from broader market expectations numerous times, failing to follow historical patterns even when data suggested otherwise with high confidence.
Crypto analyst Jelle posted Tuesday that Bitcoin is retesting previous all-time highs and may move higher, stating, “It's definitely over for bears.” Fellow analyst Matthew Hyland echoed a similar sentiment, noting “the pressure is building.”
Peterson emphasized that markets demonstrate cyclical patterns in liquidity, sentiment, and positioning rather than short-term randomness. October marks significant institutional capital cycle turns, including Q3 portfolio rebalancing completion, fiscal year planning starts, and year-end reporting window approaches.