Gemini's APAC head, Saad Ahmed, believes Bitcoin's four-year cycle will persist in some form despite evolving market dynamics. Ahmed explained during a Token2049 interview that the pattern stems from human emotion rather than technical factors alone.
Market cycles emerge when investors become overextended during excitement phases. Crashes follow these periods before correcting to equilibrium, according to Ahmed, who noted this psychological pattern drives cyclical behavior.
Growing institutional participation may absorb some market volatility going forward. However, Ahmed emphasized that cycles will continue because they are fundamentally driven by human sentiment, though some volatility may diminish.
The debate over Bitcoin's four-year cycle relevance has intensified recently within the industry. Analytics firm Glassnode indicated on Aug. 21 that recent price action may still track the historic halving cycle pattern.
Analyst Rekt Capital suggested October could mark the cycle peak if historical patterns repeat. He noted that mirroring the 2020 cycle would place the market peak approximately 550 days after the April 2024 halving event.
Q4 has historically been Bitcoin's strongest quarter since 2013. The period averages returns of 79.39%, with October beginning a traditionally bullish phase for the cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin surged 11.5% over seven days, climbing to $123,850 on Friday. This approached the $124,100 all-time high set on Aug. 14, demonstrating continued momentum despite cycle peak speculation.
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expressed skepticism that future price action will mirror previous cycles exactly. He remains optimistic about the coming years, stating he expects 2026 to be an up year with broadly positive conditions for several years ahead.