According to recent trading activity on Kalshi, a regulated prediction market, the new forecasted Bitcoin low for 2025 is around $78,000. This marks a significant shift in sentiment from earlier this year when predictions hovered much lower.
Kalshi’s platform allows traders to speculate on real-world events, including financial benchmarks like Bitcoin price levels. These market-based predictions are often more dynamic than traditional analyst forecasts because they’re backed by real capital.
This $78K prediction doesn’t suggest a crash—it implies that even in a downturn, BTC is likely to maintain strong support well above its previous cycle highs.
Why This Matters for Investors
A forecasted low of $78K suggests increased confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term strength. In previous bull runs, price volatility was extreme, with dramatic peaks and troughs. However, if the lowest price of 2025 is now expected to be $78K, that could indicate a maturing market.
Some analysts interpret this data as a reflection of broader institutional adoption. With more hedge funds, ETFs, and asset managers gaining exposure to BTC, the asset’s volatility could be stabilizing.
Moreover, this aligns with expectations for a supply crunch due to the 2024 halving, and the increasing demand from traditional finance channels.
JUST IN: $BTC now forecasted to hit a low of $78K this year, based on price of recent trades on Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/udI3uDhmJn
— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 24, 2025
A Bullish Floor or Overconfidence?
While the $78K floor forecast paints a bullish picture, it’s not without skepticism. Markets can change quickly, especially in crypto. Traders should view Kalshi predictions as one data point among many. Still, when real money backs a market sentiment, it’s worth paying attention.
As Bitcoin hovers near all-time highs, investors are increasingly looking for indicators of resilience. A high price floor could provide the psychological support needed to fuel the next leg up in this cycle.