Recent trading data from prediction market Kalshi suggests a revised outlook for Bitcoin’s 2025 trajectory. While earlier this year, forecasts speculated a push beyond the $100,000 milestone, current market activity is pointing to a more grounded figure—around $87,000.
This shift in sentiment reflects the cautious optimism currently dominating crypto markets. Though Bitcoin has shown resilience and steady upward trends in 2025, traders now seem to agree that a massive breakout may not occur this year.
Kalshi Traders Reflect Real-World Expectations
Kalshi, a regulated event prediction platform, offers valuable insights into collective investor sentiment. Its data aggregates the positions of thousands of traders who are betting real money on future outcomes. According to the latest trades, Bitcoin’s year-end price is forecasted to land near $87K.
This number is notably lower than previous projections that leaned heavily on post-halving rallies and institutional adoption hype. Instead, the moderated forecast likely takes into account macroeconomic conditions, ETF flows, and regulatory uncertainty in major markets like the U.S. and Europe.
JUST IN: $BTC now forecasted to drop to around $87,000 this year, based on price of recent trades on Kalshi. pic.twitter.com/gT6UqDFcmb
— Whale Insider (@WhaleInsider) November 15, 2025
$87K Still a Win—Just Not a Moonshot
While some crypto bulls may be disappointed by the revised target, an $87,000 Bitcoin still represents strong year-over-year growth. The price would mark a healthy gain from its 2024 close, suggesting continued investor confidence—even if the days of meteoric overnight gains are behind us, for now.
For long-term holders and institutional players, this calmer, more sustainable price movement could be a welcome sign of maturing markets.