Bitcoin has faced repeated corrections after FOMC decisions in 2025, with six of seven meetings triggering post-event declines. BTC trades around $90K after a boom-and-fade year, returning to its yearly open despite a surge toward $126K. December’s FOMC, with high cut expectations, may again test whether sentiment or policy reality guides Bitcoin’s next move.
Bitcoin FOMC pattern behavior has shaped market sentiment through 2025 as Bitcoin moved through repeated corrections tied to policy announcements. The asset now sits near its yearly open after sharp swings triggered by shifting expectations and changing liquidity conditions.
FOMC Pattern Drives Recurring Bitcoin Volatility
The Bitcoin FOMC pattern gained renewed attention after a detailed review shared by Ali @ali_charts. Data shows that six of seven FOMC meetings this year produced immediate corrections, with January, March, June, July, September, and October all recording post-event declines. These ranged from 6 percent to 29%, forming a repeated structure tied to the Fed’s policy tone.
Shaded chart zones show identical behavior across each meeting window. Price compressed after each announcement as traders reassessed risk. Only May delivered a positive reaction, when the Fed’s guidance was interpreted as modestly more supportive, driving a 15% short-term rally. The overall pattern shows Bitcoin responding directly to changes in perceived liquidity direction.
December Meeting Tests Expectations Against Policy Reality
According to the current expectation, the December 10, 2025 FOMC meeting has the probability of a rate cut at 87.4%. At 8:00 PM CET and International conference of Powell at 8:30 PM CET will continue to be key volatility timing announcements. Past experience indicates that usually, the reaction tends to be quicker during the press conference, as opposed to the first release.
Bitcoin FOMC pattern activity suggests that pre-event optimism may not sustain unless policy communication confirms easing momentum. Throughout 2025, each meeting reset short-term structure through volatility spikes, forced deleveraging, or failed breakouts. September’s decline created a clean lower high, signaling constrained momentum ahead of the fourth quarter.
Boom-and-Fade Structure Leaves Price Near Yearly Open
Bitcoin as of writing trades around $90,204, posting a 7.43% year-to-date decline. Price climbed toward $126K in early October after a strong mid-year rally, creating expectations for a sustained continuation. However, the move faded as the fourth quarter progressed, producing a rounded top and a return to the $90K–$92K zone.
The broader market picture shows a cooling environment. Market cap stands near $1.8 trillion with rising 24-hour volume, indicating more active selling. The vol-to-market cap ratio at 3.93 percent suggests reactive participation as traders respond to macro catalysts.
The Bitcoin FOMC pattern aligns with this boom-and-fade year. While Bitcoin expanded toward new highs, the failure to sustain momentum created a structure resembling a stalled cycle. CryptoPulse+ notes that the net 2025 return sits near 0.8%, demonstrating how volatility masked the lack of directional progress.