Bitcoin is testing three major moving averages that have merged at the same price level. The 21‑day, 50‑day, and 100‑day simple moving averages (SMAs) now cluster together at current trading levels. This technical convergence creates a decisive moment for Bitcoin bulls ahead of the monthly and quarterly closes.
Keith Alan, co‑founder of trading resource Material Indicators, released analysis on Monday identifying these levels as critical for the bull run. Bitcoin bounced from near $109,000 to start the week. At the time of the analysis, BTC/USD traded above the 50‑day SMA but remained below the 21‑day and 100‑day SMAs.
Alan said the three SMAs are “closely wound right now” at identical price levels. He told traders that daily candle closes matter more than intraday price action. Alan called watching whether Bitcoin flips these SMAs to support “a key thing to watch.” A daily close above the 21‑day SMA would show strength if it holds through the monthly open.
Multiple Volatility Catalysts Converge This Week
The monthly and quarterly candle closes arrive on September 30, 2025. These time periods often bring increased volatility to crypto markets. US macroeconomic data releases throughout the week focus primarily on employment figures. Labor market weakness remains a central theme as the Federal Reserve determines the path for interest rate cuts.
A potential US government shutdown scheduled to begin October 1 adds another layer of uncertainty. Risk assets like Bitcoin typically face pressure from such political deadlock scenarios. According to 99Bitcoins, Bitcoin currently trades below its 50‑day and 100‑day moving averages. The 50‑day MA appears ready to cross under the 100‑day MA, which technical analysts consider a bearish signal.
CoinDCX reports Bitcoin is trading below its 20‑day exponential moving average at $113,236 and 50‑day EMA at $113,489. However, the price holds above the 100‑day EMA at $111,782 and the 200‑day EMA at $106,164. Bulls want to see all moving averages reclaimed before attempting a break above $118,000.
We previously reported that large mining operations and institutional investors established sell orders at $110,000 and $120,000. These price levels create natural resistance zones that could help stabilize Bitcoin through mid‑autumn. The analysis suggested Bitcoin could reach $120,000 by June 2025 based on institutional adoption patterns.
Technical Structure Tests Market Resilience
The convergence of multiple moving averages at identical levels creates a compressed spring effect. A decisive break above these levels could accelerate upward momentum rapidly. Conversely, failure to reclaim these averages may extend the consolidation phase into October.
September historically ranks as Bitcoin's worst‑performing month since 2013. The cryptocurrency has posted average returns of negative 3.77 % during this period. Institutional portfolio rebalancing after summer holidays typically creates selling pressure. Fiscal year‑end adjustments from investment funds add to the downward momentum.
However, the maturation of Bitcoin derivatives markets now enables institutions to hedge risks without outright selling. Corporate treasury strategies provide consistent buying pressure that operates independently of seasonal patterns. This structural change in market composition may reduce the severity of traditional September weakness.
The September monthly close carries added weight because it determines the quarterly candle close for Q3 2025. Strong quarterly closes often precede sustained momentum in subsequent periods. October historically provides Bitcoin's strongest monthly performance, which traders call “Uptober.”
Bitcoin's ability to close above these three converging moving averages will set the tone for Q4 2025. The tight clustering of technical indicators makes the next few daily closes critical for determining near‑term direction.