Since July 1, Bitcoin has faced difficulty gaining strong upward momentum. One major reason for this is the behavior of long-term holders (LTHs), who are investors that typically hold onto their Bitcoin for extended periods, often through major market cycles.
Recent data indicates a shift in this pattern. LTHs have begun offloading a significant portion of their holdings. In total, approximately 810,000 BTC has been distributed by these investors over the past few months. This distribution has led to a reduction in their collective holdings from 15.5 million BTC to 14.6 million BTC.
Profit-Taking Is Capping Bitcoin’s Upside
Despite this wave of selling, Bitcoin has still managed to reach new all-time highs on two separate occasions. This achievement highlights the strength of current demand in the market, with buyers, potentially including institutions and retail investors, stepping in to absorb the available supply.
However, the consistent profit-taking by LTHs is acting as a constraint on Bitcoin's price. When long-term holders realize profits, it typically occurs after substantial price increases. Their selling activity increases the market's supply, which can make it more challenging for prices to advance significantly in the short term.
As long as this selling trend persists, Bitcoin's potential for upward movement may remain limited. Unless there is a substantial increase in new demand that surpasses the supply being distributed by long-term holders, Bitcoin could remain in a consolidation phase.
Why is Bitcoin stuck?
— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) October 31, 2025
One reason is that since July 1, long-term holders have been selling their coins. The distribution volume has already reached 810K BTC, and their total holdings have decreased from 15.5M to 14.6M. Yet even under this selling pressure, Bitcoin has hit new… pic.twitter.com/GcLa4bRKDr
What Could Shift the Trend?
For Bitcoin to regain stronger momentum, either long-term holders need to cease their selling activity, or a new influx of robust buyers must enter the market. Upcoming macroeconomic events, growing institutional interest, or significant ETF flows could all play a crucial role in altering the current market trend.
Until such shifts occur, the market appears to be engaged in a balance between profit-taking by existing holders and the increasing demand from new participants. Currently, neither side has established a definitive advantage.