Bitcoin has recently experienced a sharp decline in value, significantly testing investor confidence. Declining over 20% in the past month, the leading cryptocurrency has fallen more than 40% from its peak above $126,000 at the beginning of October. November marked Bitcoin’s worst performance since June 2022, a period also characterized by a deep crisis in the crypto market. The latest drop saw the price dip to the $80,000 range, reaching the lowest level in seven months.
Institutional Withdrawals and Support Signals
One of the key reasons behind Bitcoin’s weakness is the movement of institutional funds. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, in particular, recorded an exit of approximately $2.2 billion in November. Analysts suggest that these ETF withdrawals led to the breaking of technical support levels more rapidly, increasing market stress.
JPMorgan highlighted that macroeconomic conditions now impact crypto prices more than the traditional four-year halving cycle. According to the bank, while early-stage projects previously grew through significant private funding rounds, individual investors were entering the market at higher prices. Today, individual participation has noticeably declined, and institutional investors primarily provide market depth.
Despite this, some institutions maintain their long-term stance. ARK Invest increased its position in the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF by buying over 70,000 new shares. This move demonstrates continued confidence in Bitcoin over the long term despite challenging market conditions. Additionally, JPMorgan’s preparation of a structured bond indexed to BlackRock-managed Bitcoin ETF IBIT is closely monitored. Some investors view this as a short-term speculative move, while others perceive it as a sign of deepening institutional interest.
Strategy Discussions and December Scenarios
Another hot topic in the market is Strategy. According to a JPMorgan report, the company could face a fund exit risk of up to $2.8 billion if removed from MSCI indices. Approximately $9 billion of the company’s $50 billion market value is tied to passive funds following these indices. Despite a major liquidation wave of $19 billion in October, Strategy did not step back, continuing its Bitcoin purchases.
Strategy’s CEO, Michael Saylor, argues that the company should be assessed as an operational company with software revenues, not like a fund. According to Saylor, Bitcoin is not a passive asset but a productive treasury tool for the company, and acquisitions will continue despite high volatility.
On the technical side, experienced trader Peter Brandt commented that recent price movements resembled a “dead cat bounce” formation, yet he maintained a bullish outlook in the long term. The $80,000 level is the closest strong support, with a breach below this level possibly triggering a new decline toward the $70,000 range. In case of a steeper sell-off, the $60,000–$65,000 range serves as the last line of defense.
Adding to this scenario, the latest U.S. inflation data surpassing expectations and the delay of interest rate cut hopes also exerted pressure on the crypto market. These developments on the macroeconomic front are expected to be the main factors determining Bitcoin’s direction in December.