The article discusses the potential difficulties Bitcoin might encounter due to the current week’s global economic agenda. As of Monday, Bitcoin lost its $94,000 support level, influenced by the potential cancellation of tariffs and growing tensions between the EU and the US. The article explores whether on-chain data indicates any recovery in risk appetite.
Cryptocurrency Downtrend
Recent evaluations point towards a negative trend this week, primarily due to rising tariff tensions between the EU and the US. The Supreme Court is anticipated to reveal its tariff decision on Tuesday. Meanwhile, significant decreases in the PCE ahead of the Fed’s rate decision are unlikely. With robust employment data already reducing the chances of rate cuts, inflation data has become less meaningful.
In the midterm election period, former US President Trump was expected to create a stable environment to support the markets. However, the ongoing disputes surrounding Greenland suggest that those expectations might remain unmet. Hence, cryptocurrencies, being inclined to price in risks, commenced the week with a decline.
Regaining the $94,000 level could enable Bitcoin to retest the $98,000 mark. Conversely, a further decline to $88,000 or $85,000 may significantly impact altcoins‘ 2026 gains.
Cryptocurrency Risk Appetite
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost monitors Bitcoin’s open positions to assess risk appetite. The futures markets are far ahead of spot and ETFs, accounting for most of Bitcoin’s trading volume. In this context, open positions are crucial for evaluating investor behavior.
Darkfost notes that Binance controls 36% of the total open positions, making it a dominant market to monitor. He states that since the last ATH, BTC has undergone a correction of about 36%, partly due to leverage reduction in derivative markets. Open positions have seen a reduction from 381,000 BTC to 314,000 BTC, reflecting a decrease of approximately 17.5%.
After the April 2025 correction, with open positions stabilizing around 300,000 BTC and Binance’s dominance dropping to about 26%, futures markets saw a gradual return of positions. Around 80,000 BTC re-entered the futures markets, supporting an upward trend, eventually contributing to a new ATH.
By focusing on open positions measured in BTC instead of USD, the analyst isolates the analysis from price fluctuation-induced changes. Currently, open positions signal a gradual recovery, verifying that risk appetite is slowly returning. Unlike the previous year’s withdrawals, there is a steady increase in momentum, suggesting Bitcoin might reclaim the $94,000 level and continue its upward trajectory.