In a recent market movement, Bitcoin retraced to the critical support zone at $110,000. Analyst Ali Martinez warns of a potential correction down to $96,530. Conversely, gold emerged as a victor, climbing above $4,200 amid heightened interest, attributed to currency devaluation. Current evaluations indicate capital is gravitating towards scarce assets, although for the time being, the rotation is accelerating in favor of gold. Analysts predict ongoing volatility in the short term, with trends remaining sensitive to interest cuts and fund flows into ETFs.
Bitcoin’s Support and Resistance Analysis
The prevailing market narrative highlights an accelerated retreat to scarce assets as a defense against the eroding purchasing power of money under high debt dynamics and easing expectations. Gold reached new heights, testing the $4,186–$4,200 range, driven by central bank purchases and interest rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, although influenced by similar themes, is retesting the demand zone around $110,000 due to increased leverage liquidations following its recent peak.
Current technical analyses suggest that, despite possible reactions around $110,000, a downward break could bring $96,530 into focus. Reaching this threshold would signify recapturing a significant portion of the previous upward trend and testing the strength of spot/ETF fund flows. Price-volume dynamics imply that the impact of leverage cleansing might persist for a few more sessions, while the structural trend remains tied to interest rate policies.
Short-Term Market Expectations
On the macroeconomic front, the direction of the US dollar index and the Federal Reserve’s gradual interest rate cut expectations continue to influence risky assets like cryptocurrencies. A permanent rate increase might weaken the current narrative, while the opposite scenario keeps demand strong for both gold and cryptocurrencies. Expert opinions suggest that if monetary policy easing persists, the theme of currency devaluation could evolve into a multi-year narrative.
In the microstructure of the market, the rebuilding of leveraged positions in futures and the influx into and outflow from ETFs will determine the direction. As observed in the recent price movements where macro headlines rather than crypto-specific news steered the market, sudden tariffs or news shocks necessitate cautious position management. Should technical thresholds break consecutively, the $96,530 scenario would gain strength, while maintaining within the $110,000–$125,000 range would keep recovery prospects alive.