Analysts at Bitfinex have issued a warning that continued institutional withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could lead to the cryptocurrency falling below a significant price level. The $107,000 to $108,000 price range is reportedly under considerable strain, particularly without substantial accumulation from ETF investors.
Recent Outflows and Market Reaction
Net outflows from these ETFs amounted to approximately $1.23 billion between October 13th and October 17th. This period of withdrawals followed an announcement regarding tariffs made by President Donald Trump earlier in the month. The data indicates a notable absence of "dip-buying" activity from institutional participants during the recent market downturn.
This past week saw outflows on two out of three trading days. However, strong inflows on Tuesday helped maintain an overall positive net flow of $335.4 million for the week. Bitcoin experienced a brief surge above $113,000 earlier in the week, but subsequently retraced to below $110,000, and is currently trading near $108,864.
Key Price Threshold and Potential Scenarios
The Bitfinex analysts have identified the current price level as a critical inflection point. They suggest that a further weakening of this level could signal the beginning of an extended consolidation period for Bitcoin. The $107,000 to $108,000 range has become increasingly challenging to defend as support without a consistent influx of institutional buying pressure.
The analysts further noted that sustained weakness or a lack of meaningful recovery in ETF inflows over the coming weeks would be indicative of growing fragility on the demand side. Such a development could undermine the consistent institutional accumulation that has been a primary driver of previous rallies.
Under these conditions, the risk of a prolonged consolidation phase for Bitcoin would be significantly heightened. The cryptocurrency's performance has been closely mirroring broader financial market trends, with ETF flows showing a strong correlation to traditional market sentiment.
Year-End Price Predictions
Despite the current concerns, market participants generally anticipate an upward movement for Bitcoin before the end of the year. Both Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, and Tom Lee, chair of Fundstrat Global Advisors, have maintained their predictions that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by December.
Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital, offered a more tempered outlook on Tuesday. He stated that significant developments would need to occur for such substantial gains to materialize. In a more conservative scenario, Novogratz suggested that Bitcoin should aim to maintain levels above $100,000 through the end of the year.