Bitcoin Performance and On-Chain Analysis
Bitcoin held above $93,000 on Thursday as on-chain data pointed to continued supply leaving centralized exchanges. Liquidations eased sharply compared to earlier volatility during the week.
BRN Research analysts said Bitcoin's underlying structure has improved steadily despite muted spot momentum. Timothy Misir, BRN's head of research, noted exchange balances have fallen to roughly 1.8 million Bitcoin, the lowest level since 2017, based on aggregated CryptoQuant and Glassnode data.
Realized-cap growth remains positive on a monthly basis, suggesting fresh capital continues to enter Bitcoin even as the broader market trades within a tightening range. "The market opened with quiet strength," Misir said, adding that accumulation is persistent and supply is thinning on exchanges while price stabilizes above the True Market Mean.
"What's missing is a clean break into the $96K to $106K band," Misir stated.
Ethereum's Outperformance and Network Growth
Ethereum outpaced Bitcoin for a second straight session, with Ethereum climbing past $3,200.
Misir pointed to renewed accumulation from shark wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 Ethereum and daily network growth that briefly approached 190,000 in new addresses following the Fusaka upgrade. "Shark wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 ETH have resumed aggressive accumulation, historically one of the strongest leading flows for ETH outperformance," he stated in a Dec. 4 note.
Network growth touched 190,000 new addresses in a single day, indicating genuine organic expansion post-Fusaka.
Broader Market and ETF Flows
Solana and $BNB traded mixed but stable, while the overall crypto market capitalization hovered near $3.2 trillion.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a small $14.9 million net outflow on Dec. 3, ending five days of inflows, according to The Block's data. BlackRock's IBIT remained the strongest individual product, adding $42.24 million on the day, while spot Ether ETFs saw a significantly stronger session with $140 million in net inflows.
Market Positioning and Liquidations
Market positioning has continued to normalize following Monday's sharp correction. Data from CoinGlass shows just over $312 million in total liquidations over the past 24 hours, substantially lower than the multibillion-dollar spikes seen earlier in the week. Roughly $202 million of the wiped positions were shorts, and an estimated $110 million were longs.
Macroeconomic Landscape and Liquidity
A mixed macro landscape persisted, but experts say conditions are slowly tilting toward a more constructive liquidity profile. The U.S. Treasury executed a record $13.5 billion debt buyback this week, adding incremental liquidity to the system. Delphi Digital noted the Federal Reserve should deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut in December, bringing the fed funds rate into the 3.50% to 3.75% range.
The CME FedWatch tool and prediction venues like Polymarket show a 90% likelihood of lower funding rates after next week's Federal Reserve meeting. The forward curve now prices at least three additional cuts through 2026, while the end of quantitative tightening on Dec. 1, a drawdown in the Treasury General Account, and a fully depleted RRP facility create the first net-positive liquidity backdrop since early 2022.