US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) kicked off October — a month investors call “Uptober” — with their strongest inflows in nearly a year, reigniting optimism across digital asset markets.
According to data from SoSoValue, spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.24 billion in net inflows over the past week, just shy of their all-time weekly record of $3.38 billion set in late November 2024. The surge comes after a week of $902 million in outflows, marking a sharp turnaround as traders bet on a potential US rate cut that could lift risk assets.
“Growing expectations of another US interest rate cut triggered a shift in sentiment,” said Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at digital asset platform Nexo. “At current run-rates, Q4 flows could retire over 100,000 BTC from circulation — more than double new issuance.” He added that ETF buying was accelerating as long-term holders slowed distribution, giving Bitcoin a stronger base near key technical support levels.
The renewed appetite for ETFs helped push Bitcoin above $123,000 on Friday, its highest price since mid‑August, TradingView data shows. The move extends a rally that has seen Bitcoin rebound from the low $110,000 range over the past month, aided by steady institutional demand and a softening macro outlook.
ETF Demand Fuels “Uptober” Momentum
Historically, October has been one of Bitcoin’s best-performing months, averaging a 20% return, according to CoinGlass data. November ranks even higher at 46%, followed by modest gains in December. The pattern has earned the nickname “Uptober” among crypto investors, who see seasonal trends and liquidity returning after the summer lull.
“Uptober is showing clear signs of an early‑Q4 breakout in the crypto market, powered by ETF inflows, seasonal strength, and dovish macro conditions,” Kalchev said, calling ETFs the “clearest sentiment barometer” for the asset class.
Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, told Cointelegraph at the Token2049 conference in Singapore that Bitcoin’s breakout above $120,000 could trigger a “very quick move” toward the $150,000 all‑time high before the end of 2025.
Focus Turns to Fed and Jobs Data
Traders are now watching a series of macro catalysts that could determine whether the rally extends through October. These include a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, and the delayed US jobs report, which has been postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown — the first since 2018.
Despite near‑term uncertainty, analysts view the strong ETF inflows as a critical sign of returning institutional interest. If the current pace holds, Q4 could see ETFs absorb more Bitcoin than miners produce, tightening supply further.
That dynamic — coupled with a potential rate cut and seasonal tailwinds — has revived bullish sentiment after a quiet late summer. As Kalchev put it, “ETF absorption is accelerating, and Uptober might just live up to its name.”