Recent movements in the cryptocurrency market suggest Bitcoin is undergoing a significant distribution phase, reminiscent of a so-called “unofficial ICO.” As long-term holders shift out of their positions and new investors gradually accumulate, analysts see this as a watershed moment akin to a traditional company’s IPO. Despite this consolidation, underlying fundamentals remain strong, fueling confidence in Bitcoin’s resilience amid broader market challenges.
Bitcoin could be in the midst of a unique phase of redistribution that resembles an initial coin offering (ICO), according to seasoned macro analyst and Wall Street veteran Jordi Visser. As long-term holders of Bitcoin, some of whom have kept their tokens dormant for years, begin to move their coins, a broader distribution of supply is taking shape, signaling a potential turning point for the asset’s market dynamics.
On a recent episode of entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano’s podcast and via a detailed Substack post, Visser pointed out that these dormant coins are gradually re-entering the market—not all at once or in panic but steadily—as new investors take advantage of dips to accumulate. “In traditional markets, this resembles a company’s IPO,” he explained, “where early believers cash out, founders become wealthy, and venture capitalists return profits to their investors.”
“The excitement of concentration is being replaced by the durability of distribution. The early believers are passing the torch to long-term holders who bought at higher prices and have different motivations. This is what success looks like. This is Bitcoin having its IPO.”
Bitcoin Showing Signs of Sideways Consolidation
Over the past week, Bitcoin (BTC) has fluctuated within a range of roughly $106,786 to $115,957. Visser notes that such consolidation often occurs during a company’s IPO when early investors begin to sell, even amidst broader market rallies. This cautious approach by new holders—who are stacking coins but moving carefully—indicates a wait-and-see attitude among market participants.
“The result? A sideways grind that drives everyone crazy,” Visser said. “Fundamentals are strong, and the broader market is rallying, but Bitcoin just sits there. This frustrating consolidation pattern is typical after a major IPO when lock-up periods expire—early investors sell, and long-term holders slowly accumulate, thereby transferring ownership from the visionaries to institutional players.”
Crypto Market Sentiment Remains Resilient
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, an important indicator gauging market sentiment toward Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, has been signaling “fear” since mid-week. Despite this, Visser emphasizes that confidence in Bitcoin remains intact, supported by ongoing ETF approvals, record-high network hashrates, and expanding stablecoin adoption.
Visser adds, “In a bear market, you expect prices to collapse as everyone wants out. But Bitcoin is consolidating instead. Every dip is bought, and it’s not making new lows. The fact that it holds a range shows resilience.” He also highlights the ongoing transfer of ownership from speculative early investors to more stable, long-term holders, which signals a stronger foundation for the future.
He concludes, “The divergence from risk assets can be confusing, but the fundamentals are stronger than ever. The shifting distribution of holdings from a concentrated set of early believers to broader market participants is essential for Bitcoin’s maturation into a durable monetary asset.”
The Ongoing IPO-Like Process
According to Visser, the IPO analogy suggests that this process will persist for several months—typically lasting between six to 18 months—and while Bitcoin’s pace is faster than traditional assets, it remains within this timeline. Once the distribution phase concludes, volatility should decrease as ownership becomes more widely spread, reducing the influence of early holders and insiders.
“For now, expect continued consolidation. It may frustrate traders expecting quick gains, but this phase is crucial for long-term stability. When the rally resumes, it will be driven by stronger, more dispersed ownership, and the positive fundamentals will shine through.”
In summary, while Bitcoin’s market appears unsteady and sentiment remains cautious, the underlying strength of its network and broadening distribution list the path toward greater stability and mainstream acceptance in the evolving crypto markets.