Bitcoin Enters Death Cross Territory Again: Is the 2025 Bull Run Over?

Bitcoin is trading near $91,000 on Thursday, which is believed to be linked to a quick Thanksgiving surge, but a confirmed death cross earlier this month has started a new debate on whether the bull cycle for 2025 has officially ended.

This week’s technical event happened on November 16, 2025, when Bitcoin’s 50-day simple moving average crossed below its 200-day SMA, the fourth time such a crossover had occurred since the 2023 cycle low.

As of November 27, 2025, Bitcoin’s price is currently 27.91% below its all-time high of $126,198 on October 6, 2025 and has spent extended periods below the declining 200-day trendline.

The current moving averages show the 50-day SMA at approximately $93,500 and the 200-day SMA trending toward $103,113 by late December, according to TradingView data. Its thirty-day realized volatility stands at 8.89%, while market breadth has weakened, with fewer altcoins seeing recent recovery attempts.

Just in November 2025, Bitcoin's price had fallen by approximately 25%, followed by $3.79 billion in net outflows from United States spot Bitcoin ETFs and more than $2.8 billion in total futures liquidations.

On-chain data also reveals that short-term holder capitulation is nearing levels of the previous cycle lows, with funding rates remaining negative across major perpetual markets. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index stands at 22, a sign of extreme fear.

Bitcoin’s historical price movements show mixed signals. Each of the last three previous death crosses in the current cycle, September 2023 near $25,000, August 2024 near $49,000, and April 2025 below $75,000, all marked local bottoms followed by 15% to 26% rallies within three months. Although the 2022 bear market death cross preceded a 64% decline.

What Happens Next: $74K Breakdown or $105K Relief Rally?

As things stand, top market analysts remain divided. A technical analyst posted on X that “from a technical standpoint, the bull market is over,” citing sustained time below the 200-day average and deteriorating breadth as evidence of a multi-year downturn ahead.

Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, told clients there is “no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market” and described the current bounce as a low-conviction reversal driven by thin holiday liquidity.

Others are more measured. Apollo Capital CIO Henrik Andersson argued that reduced corporate treasury buying “doesn’t mean we are in a bear market” as he continues to advocate for selective positioning.

On-chain and derivatives analysts, known as Skew, say constructive short-term momentum remains as long as $90,000 to $92,000 holds as a support, with a break of $88,000 needed to confirm deeper downside toward $74,000 to $85,000.

Despite the market capitulation, institutional activity continues. Strategy and the government of El Salvador maintained their accumulation schedules throughout November, while United States spot ETFs recorded $21 million of inflows on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, after weeks of heavy redemptions. BlackRock’s IBIT alone has attracted approximately $28 billion in 2025.

Macro cross-currents add to the uncertainty. Markets now assign only a 40% probability to a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, lower compared to earlier this month, while trade policy concerns surrounding the President Trump administration weigh on risk assets.

As of November 27, 2025, traders and investors are closely monitoring the $90,000 region. A decisive close below could open the path to the April low near $74,000, while a reclaim of the 50-day SMA can drive a relief rally toward $105,000 and $108,000, in line with the post-death-cross recoveries seen earlier in the cycle.