Bitcoin has entered November, a month historically significant for its gains, with an average increase of 42.51% since 2013. This trend suggests Bitcoin could potentially surpass $160,000 this month if historical patterns hold.
However, a crypto analyst has pointed out that several macroeconomic factors are also influencing this potential surge.
"I do think seasonal charts matter a lot, but it has to be combined with a lot of other factors," stated crypto analyst Markus Thielen from 10x Research.
Looking ahead, expectations are for the US Federal Reserve to further lower interest rates, and ongoing efforts by the US and China to establish a trade deal could both prove favorable for Bitcoin. Conversely, the persistent government shutdown and existing US tariffs continue to contribute to economic uncertainty.
Here is a breakdown of key developments to monitor in the coming weeks.
US and China Easing Trade Tensions
A meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday was viewed as a positive development toward resolving trade tensions between the two nations.
President Trump described the discussions with the Chinese president in South Korea as "amazing." Key outcomes from the talks included an agreement from Trump to reduce tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing's crackdown on fentanyl trade, a resumption of US soybean purchases, and a one-year suspension of restrictions on rare earth exports.
Trump informed reporters that he anticipates a trade deal with China "pretty soon."
The threat of tariffs from the US against China was previously blamed for a significant crypto market crash, which saw $19 billion in liquidations within a 24-hour period on October 11. The crypto market has faced challenges in recovering since that event.
However, Dennis Wilder, a professor at Georgetown University and a senior fellow in its China Initiative, told CBC News that the meeting represented more of a "pause" in the trade war rather than its conclusion.
US Federal Reserve to Cut Rates and End Quantitative Tightening
Recently, Federal Reserve officials voted to implement another quarter-point rate cut, reducing the key lending rate to its lowest level in three years.
The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for December 10, 2025. Data from CME's FedWatch tool, which measures expectations for Federal Reserve rate changes, indicates that traders are pricing in a 63% probability of a rate cut.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell surprised markets by stating on Wednesday that the move was "not a foregone conclusion."
Rate cuts by the Fed are generally viewed as bullish for Bitcoin, as a lower cost of borrowing money historically encourages investors to allocate capital to riskier assets, including cryptocurrencies.
Adding to this positive outlook is the Federal Reserve's recent decision to halt its quantitative tightening (QT) program, effective December 1. QT is the process by which the central bank reduces the size of its balance sheet, aiming to cool down an overheated economy and curb rapid inflation.
The inverse of QT, quantitative easing (QE), involves central banks injecting more liquidity into the economy and is typically considered beneficial for crypto markets, as some of this newly available capital often flows into alternative assets.
US Government Shutdown Continues
The US government shutdown is approaching its fifth week, nearing the record for the longest shutdown in US history, as Republicans and Democrats remain in a deadlock over the government spending plan.
On Thursday, President Trump urged Republicans to abolish the "Senate filibuster" rule, which he blames for the ongoing shutdown, as it allows a minority of senators to block legislative action.
Trump wrote on Truth Social, "THE CHOICE IS CLEAR – INITIATE THE ‘NUCLEAR OPTION,’ GET RID OF THE FILIBUSTER AND MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!"
An end to the government shutdown is considered a necessary precursor for the SEC to grant final approval for several crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs), as well as for critical advancements in the crypto market structure bill, also known as the CLARITY Act.