Key Technical Indicators Signal Potential Rebound
Bitcoin is approaching a zone that previously marked major market turning points, as its weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) moves toward levels associated with prior cycle recoveries.
Bitcoin’s weekly RSI has dropped to near 30. This level has appeared only twice in the past five years, and both instances preceded multi-month upward phases. Market observers are watching this development because previous lows at this threshold aligned with structural exhaustion after sharp selloffs.
During 2020, the RSI formed a similar base near 30 while the price stabilized on horizontal support. The broader market then transitioned from consolidation to expansion, and Bitcoin advanced more than 1,200% over the following months. This phase carried the asset from early accumulation into a new all-time high. The alignment of momentum and structure formed the foundation for that move.
The momentum reset occurred again in 2022, when Bitcoin approached the $16,000 area. That period represented the final stage of the cycle downturn, with the market later moving more than 300% from that low. The repeat of this momentum washout on the current chart has renewed interest in whether another recovery phase could follow.
Current Structure Mirrors Previous Post-Correction Patterns
The current chart setup shares several characteristics with the 2020 and 2022 structures. The chart shows a sharp decline followed by a long-wick reaction from horizontal support. This pattern has historically occurred near the end of momentum compression during broader corrective phases. Traders are now assessing whether this reaction signals exhaustion.
Momentum conditions are also aligned with earlier rebound zones. The weekly RSI is printing a similar oversold signal, creating a technical environment that previously marked transition points. These features have been part of expansion phases that unfolded after comparable resets. Market participants see these elements forming a familiar pattern on longer-term charts.
Although the current cycle is more mature, a recovery toward the next Fibonacci extension cluster remains possible. A 10× rally, such as the one in 2020, is less likely in a late-cycle environment. However, a move into the $110,000 to $130,000 region aligns with previous post-correction advances inside ongoing upward markets.
U.S. Buying Pressure Supports Potential Upside
A separate development emerged as the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium Index flipped positive after spending a month in the red. This shift indicates strengthening U.S. buying pressure. Historically, this metric has reflected renewed participation from domestic spot markets during periods of building interest. The return of a premium signals greater willingness from U.S. traders to pay above global averages.
This shift arrives during a period of depressed momentum, adding another element to the evolving market structure. Increased spot demand during oversold conditions has previously supported recovery phases. Traders evaluating the current environment are noting that this return of demand coincides with technical levels associated with previous cycle lows.
Market watchers continue to assess how both the RSI structure and renewed U.S. demand may influence Bitcoin’s next phase. With the weekly chart showing a familiar pattern and buying pressure returning, conditions now resemble earlier periods when broader uptrends eventually resumed.