Key Insights on Bitcoin's Market Position
- •Bitcoin appears to be at the beginning of another bear market, with its price remaining below its yearly moving average.
- •The current rebound highlights the critical importance of clearing the trendline at $101,000.
- •Exchange inflows indicate that sellers have been exiting the market throughout the current week.
Bitcoin Bear Market Risk Remains Below $101,000
New research from on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests that the current market conditions in 2026 bear a strong resemblance to Bitcoin's previous bear market year in 2022.
In its latest Weekly Report issued on Friday, CryptoQuant stated, "Bitcoin has risen 21% since November 21 in what appears to be a ‘bear market rally.’"
Despite Bitcoin experiencing a rise of over 20% since its lows of $80,500 in November 2025, this upward movement may not be sufficient to guarantee a sustained rebound. According to CryptoQuant, the 365-day moving average is a key factor in this assessment.
The analytics firm explained, "The price of Bitcoin fell by 19% as it confirmed the start of a bear market after crossing below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, it has rallied by 19% to as high as $97.9K, approaching its 365-day MA that sits at $101K."
"A similar scenario played out in 2022, as the previous bear market unfolded. The Bitcoin price declined by 27% after crossing below its 365-day MA, to then rally by 47%, and be rejected at its 365-day MA."
These findings underscore the significance of the $101,000 price level, which already presents multiple resistance hurdles for Bitcoin.
As previously reported, comparisons between the current market and the 2022 bear market have become increasingly common in recent weeks and months. Forecasts have included a potential retreat towards $65,000 during 2026.
Exchange BTC Inflows Ramp Up
Consequently, CryptoQuant advises against placing excessive confidence in short-term Bitcoin price strength.
Regarding the 2022 market conditions, CryptoQuant noted, "At the time, many market participants believed the bear market was over, the four-year cycle was invalidated, and a super-cycle was imminent, sentiment not unlike what we’re seeing today."
"However, fundamental and technical indicators still point out that we remain in a bear market."
An accompanying chart illustrates that the current price trajectory is mirroring that of four years ago, with 2022 and 2026 showing divergence from the prior bear market in 2018.
As a potential indicator for bulls, the research also highlighted multi-month highs in exchange inflows on a rolling weekly basis.
CryptoQuant concluded, "Total Bitcoin flowing into exchanges has picked up to a 7-day average of 39K BTC today, the largest inflow volume since November 25, 2025. Higher inflows to exchanges can indicate escalating selling pressure ahead."
