Veteran trader Peter Brandt is warning that Bitcoin's current price action resembles the soybean market from five decades ago, when prices peaked before collapsing by 50%. The pattern, known as a broadening top, is historically associated with major market tops and subsequent declines.
Bitcoin has dropped 5.32% over the past month, raising concerns among traders about the sustainability of the current cycle. Brandt specifically pointed to the formation of this rare chart pattern, suggesting that if history repeats itself, the leading cryptocurrency could face significant downside pressure.
The veteran trader warned that such a decline wouldn't just impact Bitcoin holders but would also leave Strategy underwater. The company's stock has fallen 10.13% over the past 30 days as corporate Bitcoin treasuries face mounting pressure from declining net asset values.
Brandt suggested that the anticipated "final thrust" many in the crypto community are waiting for may never materialize. Instead, he believes Bitcoin could retreat to bear market levels as low as $60,000, contradicting more optimistic forecasts from industry participants.
Divergent Market Outlooks
Most analysts maintain that Bitcoin still has room for one major rally this cycle, with some predicting prices could reach $250,000. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes is among those expecting significant upside, pointing to historical patterns that favor fourth-quarter performance.
The fourth quarter has historically been Bitcoin's strongest period, delivering an average return of 78.49%. October typically ranks as a strong month for the cryptocurrency, though recent sentiment has shifted following President Donald Trump's tariff announcements, which triggered broader market weakness.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an "Extreme Fear" score of 25 in its Wednesday update, reflecting deteriorating sentiment during what should be a bullish period. Trading account AlphaBTC noted that Bitcoin "really needs to hold here" to maintain recent higher lows and attempt another push at the monthly open.
However, not all market observers share the bearish outlook. 21Shares crypto investment specialist David Hernandez suggested that BTC's "opportunity window" may reopen quickly if the U.S. Consumer Price Index shows signs of relief or continues the disinflation narrative, adding that "BTC is coiled and ready to spring upward."
MN Trading Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe pointed to gold's recent 5.5% decline from its highs as evidence that rotation into Bitcoin and altcoins may be beginning. The divergence in analyst opinions highlights the uncertainty surrounding the cryptocurrency's near-term direction.