Bitcoin’s (BTC) recent slip below $100,000 may have caused concern among investors, but a crucial indicator examining the long-term correlation between gold and Bitcoin is signaling a potential new low. As of November 15, the BTC/XAU ratio fell by 10.45% on a weekly basis and dropped 4.8% beneath its 200-week exponential moving average (EMA). This break is known as a reliable signal found at the core of every major Bitcoin cycle low over the past decade.
Potential Pullback Levels and Critical Thresholds for Bitcoin
Since 2015, the ratio has dipped below the 200-week EMA only four times, each marking macro low points in Bitcoin prices. The break in November 2025 registered as the fifth such signal. During the 2015-2016 period, the ratio remained under the EMA for 203 days, after which BTC found its bottom in the $200-$300 range, eventually soaring over 6,000% by the 2017 peak. A similar trend occurred during the 2018 downturn at the $3,122 low, the pandemic crash in 2020 at $3,858, and the $15,500 dip at the end of 2022. If this historical pattern holds, Bitcoin might face a consolidation phase of 4 to 12 weeks following this break.
Bitcoin is also undergoing a crucial structural test on the weekly chart. For the first time in a while, BTC closed below its 50-week EMA. This development introduces the possibility of a retracement to the $83,724 level, considered a strong support during the 2024 rally. Should this week also close below the 50-week EMA, selling pressure might persist and push prices to the mid-$80,000 range.
However, the bulls are not entirely out of the picture. In recent years, BTC briefly dipped below the 50-week EMA in July 2024, September 2024, and April 2025 before rebounding strongly. These movements trapped many sellers and initiated a new upward trend. A similar “long wick” scenario could develop now, potentially strengthening the short-term bullish outlook if the price reclaims the 20-week EMA.
Discussions on Slowdown in Institutional Demand
Amid discussions of these signals, another significant development is gaining attention in the market. Institutional inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. have slowed compared to previous months. Although inflows into BlackRock and Fidelity funds have decreased, limited outflows indicate that institutional investors have not entirely withdrawn from the market. Analysts suggest that if the BTC/XAU signal aligns with ETF inflows, a robust recovery could occur in the first quarter of 2026.
Ultimately, the signals from Bitcoin’s technical indicators and its correlation with gold suggest that the current pullback may be a cyclical correction. However, trading below the 50-week EMA indicates that prices might remain volatile in the short term. Investors could view this period as a potential bottoming area, guided by historical patterns rather than as a phase of panic.