Key Market Indicators
The Bitcoin market is currently experiencing selling pressure, as evidenced by several key indicators. The Futures Flow Index remains bearish, standing at 25.9%, which signifies weak buyer strength. This is well below the neutral level of 45, indicating a prevailing bearish sentiment in the futures market.
Adding to this concern, long-term holders have sold approximately 337,300 BTC over the past 30 days. This significant distribution suggests growing caution among these holders at current price levels, potentially indicating profit-taking or a belief that prices may not continue to rise further in the short term.
Bitcoin is also testing critical support levels, with analysts observing the CME Futures gap located near the $107,400 to $107,700 range. The ability to hold above these levels will be crucial in determining the short-term trajectory of BTC.
Futures Market Activity
Bitcoin continues to trade below its 30-day fair value of $112,100. This suggests subdued futures activity and a decline in buyer interest. The market has experienced dominant red bear regime zones, indicating that bullish momentum is waning. A recovery above the 45–55 zone would be necessary for bulls to regain strength.
Despite brief attempts at bullish rallies on October 13 and October 20, the market has failed to sustain upward momentum. The Futures Flow Index's consistently low readings reinforce the notion of weak buyer engagement in the futures market.
Long-Term Holder Behavior
The significant sell-off by long-term holders, amounting to 337,300 BTC in the last month, points to considerable distribution pressure. This trend, reflected in the sharp decrease in the net position change for long-term holders, suggests that these investors are either realizing profits or becoming increasingly cautious about the current market valuation.
Exchange Flows and Support Levels
In contrast to the selling pressure from long-term holders, Bitcoin's netflow on Binance has turned sharply negative, with a figure of -315.2 BTC. This indicates a reduction in selling pressure as coins are being withdrawn from the exchange. Such a trend often suggests increased self-custody and a potential for accumulation, even amidst broader market uncertainty.
Bitcoin is currently retesting a critical support region situated between $105,000 and $107,000. This occurred after a brief period where BTC managed to reclaim both its 200-day moving average (MA) and exponential moving average (EMA). As of the latest reporting, BTC is trading at $107,926, reflecting a 2.39% decrease on the day, but it is managing to hold above key technical levels.
Analyst TedPillows has highlighted the importance of maintaining levels above $107,000–$108,000, suggesting that holding this range could facilitate a bounce. Conversely, a breakdown below this support could lead to a decline towards the $100,000 mark. This perspective is further supported by Washigorira, who noted that the price action is currently hovering near a CME Futures gap that spans from $107,400 to $107,700.
While this CME gap might exert a gravitational pull on the price, a firm hold above the current levels could potentially reignite bullish momentum. However, sustained weakness below the $107,000 threshold would signal a resurgence of bearish control and expose Bitcoin to the possibility of a more significant correction.