Expert Outlook on Bitcoin's Current Price Action
Jan3 founder Samson Mow has stated that the anticipated Bitcoin bull run has not yet begun, noting that Bitcoin recently slipped below the $100,000 mark. Mow, a prominent figure in Bitcoin infrastructure, argued that current price levels are barely keeping pace with inflation rates.
This assessment was shared by Mow on Wednesday, coinciding with a broader decline across Bitcoin and the wider cryptocurrency markets. Trade tensions between the United States and China, coupled with existing macroeconomic pressures, are contributing factors to this market downturn.
Bitcoin experienced accelerated selling on Tuesday, pushing its price down to $99,607 by Wednesday. Despite this pullback, Mow posted optimistic predictions on X, formerly Twitter, asserting that Bitcoin continues to outperform the U.S. inflation rate of 3%.
Predictions for Future Bitcoin Performance
When questioned about potential momentum in December, Mow indicated he is "not uncertain" about Bitcoin experiencing a "Christmas god candle," a term used to describe a significant surge in buying pressure. Earlier this year, he had predicted that Bitcoin would rapidly ascend to $1 million in a "short and violent upheaval."
Mow also addressed prevailing cycle theories on Wednesday, suggesting that proponents might anticipate a peak in 2026. However, he clarified that he does not adhere to traditional cycle frameworks.
If historical patterns were to apply, Bitcoin remaining relatively flat throughout 2025 would indicate the absence of a typical cycle top. This scenario points towards either an extended cycle that peaks in 2026, a decade-long bull run comparable to gold's performance post-ETF approval, or the potential end of cyclical patterns, a phenomenon Mow refers to as an "Omegacycle."
Dispelling Fears of Early Adopter Selling
Macro analyst Jordi Visser proposed on Sunday that Bitcoin is entering a phase where existing holders are distributing their assets to new buyers. Mow dismissed this narrative on Tuesday, characterizing fears of early Bitcoin adopters selling their holdings as overstated.
Mow stated that investors often create fear-driven theories about early adopters selling above $100,000, leading to self-inflicted anxiety. He emphasized that Bitcoin is destined to add another zero to its price, with timing being the only significant variable. Mow added that he is not aware of any early adopters currently selling their Bitcoin.
Market Sentiment and Investor Psychology
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index saw a significant drop this week, moving into the "Extreme Fear" territory. In contrast, Jan3's proprietary inverted index registered a score of 24, which the company classifies as being within the "Extreme Greed" range. Jan3 explained on Wednesday that Bitcoin investors are more concerned with missing out on acquiring satoshis rather than fearing price declines. This indicates that market panic actually reflects underlying greed among Bitcoin holders.