Bitcoin’s recent performance shows that the market remains cautious, oscillating between well-defined technical boundaries as traders await stronger confirmation of trend direction.
Market Sentiment Turns Optimistic After Inflation Data
The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by just 0.3%, slightly below market expectations and signaling that price pressures are easing. The modest reading boosted hopes that the Federal Reserve might eventually ease its monetary stance, igniting rallies across equities. Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged to new highs as risk appetite returned to the forefront.
According to blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant, the CPI data helped set a more positive tone across global markets. The firm described the reaction as a “fast adjustment followed by realignment,” where traders initially pushed prices higher before settling into a more cautious consolidation phase. While the broader environment has become more favorable for risk-taking, Bitcoin continues to lag behind equities in momentum.
CryptoQuant noted that “risk appetite is returning,” but much of it remains concentrated in traditional markets, suggesting that crypto investors are still waiting for more decisive macro or liquidity signals before committing fresh capital.
Glassnode Data Highlights Bitcoin’s Key Price Zones
Technical data from Glassnode, shared by crypto analyst Ali Martinez, reinforces Bitcoin’s current state of equilibrium. Using the Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap, Martinez identified $111,160 as a major support zone, while $117,630 stands as critical resistance. These levels represent areas of concentrated buying and selling activity, effectively forming the boundaries of Bitcoin’s current range.
For Bitcoin $BTC, $111,160 acts as key support while $117,630 remains the resistance to break for bullish continuation. pic.twitter.com/cRqVDrmdiZ
— Ali (@ali_charts) October 28, 2025
A separate Glassnode dataset — the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) — also shows a similar structure, with significant realized price clusters at $112,340 and $117,390. These ranges correspond closely with trader positioning and historical accumulation zones.
Martinez explained that a clear breakout above the upper boundary could pave the way for a renewed bullish phase, while a loss of support below $111K could trigger a deeper retracement. For now, the lack of strong directional follow-through suggests a market still searching for conviction.
Institutions Remain on the Sidelines
Despite improving macro conditions, institutional participation in crypto remains muted. Data from CryptoQuant indicates that large-scale inflows — the key fuel behind previous Bitcoin rallies — have yet to materialize in any significant way.
This hesitation reflects lingering uncertainty around global monetary policy, even as inflation data points toward stability. Many funds appear content to remain on the sidelines until they see stronger confirmation that the Fed’s next move will favor risk assets. Without those inflows, short-term rallies in Bitcoin are likely to face heavy resistance near the $117K zone highlighted by Glassnode.
Outlook: Patience Before Momentum
The current setup leaves Bitcoin in a delicate position. On one hand, improving economic conditions and a cooling inflation trend are historically supportive for digital assets. On the other, the lack of follow-through in price action suggests that traders are still wary of declaring the start of a new bullish leg.
If Bitcoin manages to hold above its key on-chain support near $111K while macro sentiment continues to improve, analysts expect momentum to gradually build into November. However, until the $117K ceiling is convincingly broken, the market is likely to remain range-bound, with volatility driven more by macro developments than crypto-specific catalysts.
As CryptoQuant summarized in its latest report, the environment is shifting — inflation is cooling, equities are thriving, and Bitcoin is consolidating. For now, the digital asset appears to be gathering strength quietly, awaiting its next decisive move.