Bitcoin : After the Rate Cut, Traders Prepare for an Explosive 2026

The recent Fed rate cut has reignited speculation in the crypto market. Yet, bitcoin traders are now targeting 2026, with ambitious goals at $130,000 and $180,000 in the first quarter, rather than an immediate rebound at the end of the year.

Bitcoin Traders Temper Expectations for a “Santa Rally”

Following the recent Fed rate cut, data indicates a significant concentration of call options for March 2026, with strikes set at $130,000 and $180,000. Furthermore, the $100,000 strike for December 2025 dominates open interest, accounting for 20,900 contracts, of which 18,360 are calls, representing 88% of the activity. This trend suggests an anticipation of a gradual increase in bitcoin's value rather than an immediate surge.

Analysts suggest that the rebound potential may be capped around $99,000 by the close of 2025, attributed to reduced market liquidity and declining volatility. Bitcoin, currently trading around $89,500, has seen a 5.5% decrease from its post-Fed peak of $94,267. Consequently, traders are adopting a strategy of patient accumulation with a focus on 2026.

Trading strategies such as long call condors and bull call spreads are prevalent, signaling confidence in a steady upward trajectory. Institutional players like BlackRock and Grayscale are actively reinforcing this trend through substantial bitcoin accumulations via their exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

The Fed's Emerging Influence on the Crypto Market

The Federal Reserve's decision to purchase $40 billion of Treasury bills monthly is designed to maintain liquidity within the banking system. While this is a technical measure, it indirectly provides support to riskier assets, including bitcoin. Crypto traders are now closely monitoring the Fed's future statements, as any indication of sustained easing in 2026 could potentially trigger a new wave of investment.

Powell’s suggestion of a pause in rate cuts after December reduces political uncertainty and fosters a more stable crypto adoption long-term. Markets gain conviction when monetary direction is clear, encouraging traders to favor assets like Bitcoin rather than speculative altcoins.

Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget

A notable paradox exists: despite inflation remaining above the 2% target, the Fed is prioritizing support for employment. This stance provides reassurance to crypto markets. Current trading strategies, such as long call condors, reflect an expectation of gradual appreciation rather than a sudden, disorderly rally. Prominent figures like Michael Saylor have indicated that financial institutions are discreetly integrating bitcoin, thereby bolstering long-term confidence in the asset.

2025: A Mixed Year-End Preceding an Explosive Bitcoin in 2026

Bitcoin experienced a period of volatility throughout 2025, reaching a peak of $126,000 in October before undergoing a correction that pushed it below $90,000 in November. Traders are now focusing on patient accumulation strategies in anticipation of a significant rebound in 2026. Bitcoin ETFs have witnessed record inflows, exceeding $21 billion since the third quarter of 2025.

The key catalysts anticipated for 2026 include potential monetary easing by the Fed, increasing institutional adoption, and a stable geopolitical environment. Some analysts project bitcoin could reach $250,000 in 2026, contingent on market stability. Others concur with the forecast of $130,000 to $180,000 in the first quarter of 2026. The upcoming months will be critical in confirming these projections.

Bitcoin traders have clearly outlined their strategic approach: 2025 is expected to conclude without a significant "Santa rally," but rather with methodical preparations for an explosive performance in 2026. The targeted price levels of $130,000 and $180,000 underscore confidence in evolving monetary policies and the growing institutional embrace of bitcoin. The central question is shifting from whether BTC will reach these valuations to when.