Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced a 10% decrease over the past 30 days, coinciding with a shift in behavior among several groups of wallet holders from distribution to accumulation.
This accumulation, combined with record realized losses, suggests a potential change in market momentum.
Key Observations
- •Bitcoin whales and mid-sized holders are actively acquiring BTC at current price levels.
- •Whales and sharks are currently absorbing approximately 240% of the newly mined Bitcoin supply.
- •Bitcoin's realized losses reached $5.7 billion on November 22, marking the largest figure since the FTX collapse, a common indicator of capitulation.
Strong Bitcoin Accumulation at Current Levels
Following the recent dip in Bitcoin's price to $80,000, whales have demonstrated an increased risk appetite, utilizing the decline as an opportunity to accumulate.
Data from Glassnode indicates that the Bitcoin Accumulation Trend Score (ATS) is approaching a score of 1, signaling intense accumulation by significant investors. An ATS score closer to 1, represented in dark blue, signifies that whales are accumulating more Bitcoin than they are distributing. Conversely, a score closer to 0, shown in light yellow, indicates distribution or a lack of accumulation.
The notable increase in the trend score suggests a transition from distribution to accumulation across nearly all investor cohorts. This pattern is reminiscent of the accumulation observed in July, which preceded Bitcoin's rally to its previous all-time high of $124,500 on August 14, following a period below $100,000 in June.
Further analysis from Glassnode reveals a renewed buying interest from entities holding between 10 and 1,000 BTC. These smaller to mid-sized holders have been accumulating aggressively in recent weeks.
Bitcoin Whales Absorb Nearly 240% of New Supply
The yearly absorption rate metric further supports this accumulation trend. It indicates that whales and sharks are currently absorbing approximately 240% of Bitcoin's yearly issuance, while exchanges are experiencing outflows at a historic rate.
Specifically, Bitcoin's yearly absorption rate by exchanges has fallen below -130%, signifying continuous outflows. This trend suggests a growing preference for self-custody or long-term investment strategies among these entities.
Concurrently, larger holders, defined as those possessing 100+ BTC, are acquiring nearly one and a half times the new Bitcoin issuance. This represents the most rapid accumulation rate among sharks and whales in Bitcoin's history.
This shift signifies a structural change in the market, driven by increasing adoption of Bitcoin by traditional finance, particularly with the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies and new demand from ETFs.
Bitcoin Realized Losses Surpassed $5.7 Billion
Additional data from Glassnode highlighted that Bitcoin's recent price drawdown "triggered the largest spike in realized losses since the FTX collapse in late 2022."
On November 22, realized losses by short-term holders (STHs) reached $3 billion, while long-term holders (LTHs) incurred losses of $1.78 billion. The total aggregate realized losses across all holders amounted to $5.78 billion following Bitcoin's drop to $80,000 on November 21.
Glassnode further commented:
STHs account for the bulk of the losses, while LTH losses stay comparatively contained, indicating that the stress is largely on recent buyers.
As previously reported, short-term Bitcoin traders are experiencing the most significant pressure from the current market downturn in terms of unrealized losses. ETFs have contributed a maximum of 3% to the recent selling pressure.