Bitcoin's realized capitalization has seen a significant increase of over $8 billion in the past week, reaching more than $1.1 trillion. This growth coincides with a rise in Bitcoin's realized price, which has now surpassed $110,000. This upward trend indicates sustained demand from both investors and miners, even in the wake of a substantial $19 billion cryptocurrency market downturn. The realized capitalization metric, which measures the dollar value of all coins at their last transaction price, provides insight into the total investment held by Bitcoin holders.
Factors Influencing Bitcoin's Recovery
Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, a crypto analytics platform, has identified Bitcoin treasury firms and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as the primary drivers of recent inflows. However, Ju has cautioned that the extent of Bitcoin's price recovery may be limited unless Bitcoin ETFs and MicroStrategy resume their substantial acquisition activities. Currently, demand is predominantly being fueled by these two entities, both of which have recently scaled back their purchases. Ju's analysis suggests that a recovery in purchasing volume from these key channels would likely reignite market momentum.
Miner Expansion and Network Security
Bitcoin miners are actively expanding their operations, contributing to a rising network hashrate. Data from CryptoQuant highlights this trend as a strong long-term positive indicator for the continued growth and security of the Bitcoin network. In a notable development, American Bitcoin, associated with the Trump family, recently acquired 17,280 application-specific integrated circuits at an approximate cost of $314 million. This move by American Bitcoin is part of a broader trend, with several other large Bitcoin mining operations also increasing their mining fleets in recent months.
Shifting Institutional Demand Patterns
The current slowdown in institutional Bitcoin purchases marks a departure from the patterns observed earlier in the year. Previously, BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF had achieved significant holdings, accumulating 700,000 BTC valued at $75.5 billion, which represented 55 percent of all U.S. Bitcoin ETF assets. This rapid accumulation demonstrated the substantial capacity of institutional products to absorb Bitcoin supply during the first half of the year.
MicroStrategy, now operating as Strategy, held approximately 640,808 Bitcoin as of late October, with an average acquisition price of $66,384 per coin. The company had amassed considerable Bitcoin positions throughout 2024 and 2025, financed through convertible debt offerings and stock issuances. Reports indicate that Strategy surpassed the half-million Bitcoin mark in early 2025, acquiring an additional 89,000 Bitcoin within the first three months of that year alone. However, recent financial periods have shown a decrease in the company's purchasing pace.
Investor Sentiment Remains Cautious
Investor sentiment has remained within the "fear" territory since the significant market crash, which saw a $19 billion reduction in value at the beginning of October. Despite the White House issuing a detailed statement regarding a trade agreement between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, this development did not significantly improve crypto investor sentiment. Sentiment indicators have largely remained suppressed, even in the presence of potentially positive macroeconomic news.
Analyst Projections for Market Recovery
Market analysts anticipate that a recovery in Bitcoin's price is contingent on renewed interest from ETFs. Projections suggest that a resurgence in ETF inflows, coupled with potential monetary easing from the Federal Reserve, could drive Bitcoin's price towards $140,000 in November. Analysts from the Bitfinex exchange have indicated that their base-case scenario involves Bitcoin reaching $140,000, with total ETF inflows potentially ranging between $10 billion and $15 billion. Key catalysts identified for this growth include two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the fourth quarter, a doubling of ETF inflows, and the typical seasonal strength observed in the fourth quarter.
However, analysts also acknowledge ongoing risks related to tariffs and geopolitical conditions, which could impact market momentum. They emphasized that any significant Bitcoin rally is heavily reliant on continued institutional participation through regulated investment products. Without a resumption of buying activity from major channels such as spot ETFs and corporate treasury programs, price appreciation is likely to remain constrained.
Fundamental Support from Miner Expansion
The expansion of Bitcoin mining capacity provides fundamental support for network security and the long-term value of the cryptocurrency. The increasing hashrate serves as a clear indicator of miner confidence in future Bitcoin price levels. The economics of Bitcoin mining necessitate substantial capital investment with payback periods that can extend over several years. The current expansion activities suggest that miners are anticipating Bitcoin to maintain or increase its value in the coming quarters. This combination of reduced selling pressure from established miners and the growing security of the network creates a solid foundation for potential price increases once institutional demand fully re-engages.