Key Projections and Market Trends
Egrag Crypto, a prominent analyst, projects a 55-65% likelihood of Bitcoin closing 2026 in the green. This projection assumes a divergence from historical halving patterns, with critical markers suggesting potential levels above $105,000.
This potential shift in the typical cycle highlights Bitcoin's adaptability and its significant impact on broader market trends. Analysts are reevaluating established patterns amidst emerging signs of consolidation rather than a sustained bear market.
Analysis of Cycle Deviations
Egrag Crypto suggests a 55–65% chance of Bitcoin ending 2026 with gains. This analysis deviates from the historical halving cycle, potentially breaking the expected green-green-green-red sequence for the 2023-2026 cycle.
Egrag Crypto, who is known for analysis aligned with halving patterns, is proposing a new cycle sequence. Instead of the historically observed pattern, 2025 is likely to be red, which hints at a cooling phase rather than a full-blown bear market.
Immediate Market Performance and Bitcoin Dominance
The immediate market response has seen Bitcoin prices rise by 8% weekly, with a partial recovery of resistance levels situated between $95,000 to $98,000. Bitcoin's increasing market share demonstrates its strength, especially as altcoins have been losing ground.
Financial observers have noted that short-term holders have reacted by transferring over 40,000 BTC to exchanges. PlanB, the creator of the Stock-to-Flow model, has argued that "the four-year cycle should not be confused with the stock-to-flow model." He further contended that while the post-halving year typically performs well, 2025 clearly broke that pattern. Bitcoin's growing dominance continues, with its market share exceeding 57% despite the struggles faced by altcoins.
Contrasting Models and Historical Context
Analyst debates underscore that the four-year BTC cycle contrasts with other analytical models, such as the Stock-to-Flow model. Insights derived from historical trends suggest that the anticipated red year in 2025 may represent a period of consolidation rather than a significant crash. The analysis takes into account past cycles that exhibited comparable deviations and highlights Bitcoin’s continued dominance during uncertain market phases.