Prediction markets are now indicating that a Bitcoin finish above $100,000 in January is the most likely scenario. This outlook is supported by technical chart analysis that suggests Bitcoin may be replicating a prior rebound pattern. These converging data points suggest a bullish sentiment among traders as Bitcoin approaches a significant psychological price level, with market participants closely monitoring the sustainability of the recent breakout.
Bitcoin $100K Odds Rise as Traders Price January Rebound
Traders are increasingly pricing in the possibility of Bitcoin closing January above the $100,000 mark, according to prediction markets. This growing confidence is linked to expectations of expanding U.S. liquidity. Data from Opinion Labs indicates a 59.4% probability that Bitcoin will trade at or above $100,000 by January 31st, using spot BTC/USDT one-minute candles as the reference price. The same market assigns a 24.1% probability to the $105,000 level and an 8.1% probability to $110,000. Conversely, downside scenarios around $85,000 hold approximately a 15.1% chance.
Bitcoin January $100K Odds Market. Source: Opinion Labs
The data shows that the $100,000 outcome has attracted the largest share of trading volume among the listed contracts. Bids and asks are clustered tightly around the current prevailing probability. In contrast, higher price targets exhibit thinner liquidity and lower implied odds, suggesting that traders are concentrating their risk around the $100,000 level rather than anticipating a rapid surge beyond it. Bearish scenarios below $90,000 are drawing comparatively limited participation, indicating reduced conviction in a significant January pullback.
Arthur Hayes has contributed to the bullish outlook, predicting a strong Bitcoin rebound driven by expanding U.S. dollar liquidity under the Trump administration. Hayes emphasized policy conditions as a primary driver for risk assets, rather than short-term technical factors. This perspective appeared to be reflected in market movements, with the $100,000 contract seeing an increase during mid-January trading, while probabilities for higher strikes experienced more modest shifts.
Overall, market sentiment appears constructive but selective. Traders are favoring a reclaim of the $100,000 level without aggressively pricing in an immediate surge beyond it. As January progresses, they continue to hedge their positions with smaller allocations across both higher and lower price ranges.
Bitcoin Chart Flags Repeat Setup as BTC Reclaims Key Averages
Concurrently, Bitcoin's recent rebound is drawing comparisons to an earlier recovery phase, as indicated by a chart shared by crypto analyst Jelle (@CryptoJelleNL). The analyst suggests that "history is repeating."
Bitcoin History Repeating Chart. Source: CryptoJelleNL/X
The chart illustrates Bitcoin entering a consolidation phase before reversing once the price reclaimed a moving average ribbon and broke through a descending trendline. In the earlier pattern, observed on the left side of the chart, Bitcoin experienced a decline throughout March and April 2025 before stabilizing. Subsequently, the price recovered the moving average band, and the ribbon transitioned from acting as resistance to becoming support, which preceded a broader advance into mid-2025.
A similar structural pattern appears to be unfolding on the right side of the chart, covering the period from late 2025 into early 2026. Bitcoin saw a sharp decline into November, followed by sideways trading through December. It later broke above the downtrend line and moved back above the moving average ribbon. The chart places Bitcoin's price near $96,562, with the moving average ribbon levels situated around $92,113 and $90,083. This range represents the nearest support zone if the current breakout is sustained.