Slower Deposit Pace
Whale deposits to Binance slowed down in January, after more substantial transfers in December. At the start of 2026, around 15,800 BTC were sent to the exchange, signalling a slower pace of deposits. Binance data shows that since the beginning of 2026, whales have slowed down the rate of transfers to the platform. For December, whales transferred a total of 37,133 BTC. To date, transfers to Binance are around 42.5% slower. The whale’s approach may signal a wait-and-see strategy.
Whale inflows also dominated over retail deposits, increasing the average size of transfers to Binance. However, even whale deposits could abruptly slow down, signalling a shift in market sentiment. For now, BTC indicators are not yet bullish, but may signal a market bottom.
Market Sentiment and BTC Movements
Whale movements are closely watched for signals on a potential price recovery for BTC. The recent slowdown coincided with a BTC recovery to over $97,000. BTC retreated to $95,449.56, with predictions for regaining the $100,000 level soon. The most recent price upturn also did not lead to immediate selling, as holders did not rush to liquidate at the higher price.
The recent activity shows that the potential for capitulation is lower. BTC sentiment returned to neutral based on trader activity, and only retail remains bearish.
The December downturn also coincided with a rotation into stocks and precious metals. However, the liquidity did not entirely abandon crypto assets, leading to a price recovery.
Whale transfers may accelerate with more dramatic price moves. If BTC rises with a new rally, deposits may be an attempt to take profits. Whale transfers also happen during downturns, as a way to cut losses.
Deposit Size and Whale Influence
Mean Inflows Remain Whale-Sized
Mean inflows to Binance remain near all-time highs. The mean deposit is over 20 BTC. Whales make up around 20.85% of total inflows, but are more influential on the size of deposits. Daily whale transfers are at around 2,200 BTC, a moderate level that can easily be absorbed by the market.
Market Cycle and Liquidity Rebuilding
BTC is 101 Days from its All-Time High
The recent market downturn has continued for 101 days since the all-time high above $126,000. The current market cycle took only 236 days to achieve a new all-time high. During the past three months, BTC turned more volatile, ranging from its peak to lows just under $80,000.
Historically, big liquidation events take between 3 and 6 months to rebuild liquidity. For now, the market is still affected by last October’s downturn.
BTC open interest is back down to $30B, and is yet to recover reliably. The market still awaits signs of a direction, instead of a range-bound liquidation of short and long positions.
At the current price range, over 77% of BTC supply is held in profit, up from 62% in November. The improved market price may mean some whales will be ready to hold onto their assets.