In the last couple of weeks, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced volatility, reclaiming and then losing the $90,000 level multiple times. As of December 8, Bitcoin was trading at $89,837, marking a 0.4% increase over the past 24 hours. This figure remains significantly below its all-time high of over $126,000, which was reached in early October.
Since October 10, BTC has traded within a range of $82,000 to $90,000, indicating a notable correction from its peak performance.
While analysts and traders continue to discuss whether Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle is still in effect, analysts at Bernstein have introduced new price targets for the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
Bitcoin's four-year cycle is intrinsically linked to its programmed halving events. These events, occurring approximately every four years, reduce the block reward that miners receive by half. Historically, this reduction in supply has driven distinct market phases, including accumulation, rally, and correction.
Previous halvings in 2012, 2016, and 2020 were followed by significant bull runs, which in turn led to extended bear markets. However, there is ongoing debate among analysts regarding whether this established pattern will continue as Bitcoin matures as an asset.
Tom Lee, chairperson of Bitmine, recently shared his perspective during an appearance at Binance Blockchain Week. He explained that the Bitcoin cycle is expected to break in the coming weeks.
"I think that in the next 8 weeks we will break the 4-year Bitcoin cycle. This time it won't be a 4-year cycle."
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) scheduled to meet on December 9–10, traders are closely observing whether an anticipated interest rate cut could influence Bitcoin's short-term price trajectory.
Bernstein Forecasts Elongated Bitcoin Cycle
In a recent research note, Bernstein indicated that the current market pullback has not diminished institutional demand. This suggests that Bitcoin's price cycle might be evolving beyond the traditional four-year rhythm.
“In view of recent market correction, we believe the Bitcoin cycle has broken the four-year pattern and is now in an elongated bull cycle, with more sticky institutional buying offsetting any retail panic selling,” Bernstein wrote in their analysis.
The firm further noted that despite Bitcoin experiencing a 30% correction, Bitcoin ETF outflows represented less than 5% of the total, which they interpret as a sign of strong investor conviction.
Bernstein has revised its 2026 Bitcoin price target upwards to $150,000. They anticipate the current cycle will peak in 2027, reaching approximately $200,000. Their long-term forecast for Bitcoin by 2033 is set at around $1 million per BTC.
Previously, the firm had predicted Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by 2025.